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Athletico PR – Bahia2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Athletico PR
1.52
Total xG
2.73
Bahia
1.21
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Athletico PR | Bahia |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.28 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.28 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.28 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Attack strength (1.43x league average) | +0.06 | |
| Kevin Viveros not in squad (18 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| João Cruz not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Gastón Benavídez not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| 53% of goal output missing (only 50% available) | ||
| Cristian Olivera not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Extreme squad impact: Athletico PR will miss Kevin Viveros (18 goals), João Cruz (2 goals), and Gastón Benavídez (1 goal), leaving only 51% of their regular starting goalscoring threat available
- Strong form of the visitors: Bahia travels with excellent momentum of four wins in their last five matches (DWWWW), whereas the hosts managed only one win during this span
- Head-to-head dominance: Bahia is unbeaten in the last three direct encounters and celebrated a clear 3-0 victory in the most recent match
Risks
- Defensive decline: Athletico PR conceded an average of 2.4 goals in their last five matches, significantly higher than their season average of 1.24
- Severely weakened attack: Without the suspended top scorer Kevin Viveros, the hosts lose their most potent threat in offense
All probabilities
Result
Athletico PR43%
Draw28%
Bahia29%
Double chance
Athletico PR or draw71%
Bahia or draw57%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Athletico PR: 7 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Bahia with Erick starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 1 (14/7 games, last 27)
- Bahia: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)
- Bahia: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (4 points rescued)
Lineups
Athletico PR 3-4-2-1 · Bahia 4-3-3
Athletico PR
- 1 M. Pontes Moreira
- 25 J. Silva Dantas de Oliveira
- 33 J. Aguirre Tabares
- 4 A. dos Santos Barbosa Dias
- 12 G. Moraes Junior
- 16 J. Alves dos Santos
- 14 L. Dias
- 37 L. Esquivel
- 21 L. Caetano Silva
- 7 J. Mendoza Valencia
- 18 K. Calderón Vargas
Bahia
- 1 R. de Oliveira Strada
- 44 M. Ferreira da Silva
- 33 D. de Duarte Macedo
- 4 V. Soares dos Santos
- 46 Luciano
- 14 E. Conrado Carvalho
- 5 N. Acevedo Tabárez
- 11 R. Bertalia
- 7 A. da Silva Santos Junior
- 9 A. Véliz
- 16 E. da Costa Farias
Substitutes
- 27 J. Portilla Orozco
- 6 L. Dias Gonçalves
- 22 C. Terán Díaz
- 10 B. Zapelli
- 53 E. Kogitzki Anastacio
- 70 R. Peixoto Nepomuceno
- 23 A. Melo dos Santos Neto
- 5 A. Costa
- 3 L. Pinheiro da Conceição
- 2 G. Leite dos Santos
- 47 F. Chiqueti Bandeira
- 19 J. Rivaldo Pinto
- 3 M. Ojeda
- 6 J. de Souza Oliveira
- 17 G. Herrera
- 31 R. Gómez
- 77 R. Barbosa Sousa
- 23 M. Sanabria
- 27 E. Stum
- 12 W. da Silva
- 66 J. de Lima Costa
- 10 É. de Barros Ribeiro
- 8 C. Souza e Silva
- 57 K. Furquim
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