Serie A
Athletico PR - Bahia
09/20/2026, 10:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.7
1.2
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Athletico PR
Bahia
The Lab
- 1Athletico PR: 7 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- 2Bahia with Erick starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 1 (14/7 games, last 27)
- 3Bahia: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)
- 4Bahia: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (4 points rescued)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
43%
Draw
28%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
57%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- Extreme squad impact: Athletico PR will miss Kevin Viveros (18 goals), JoĂŁo Cruz (2 goals), and GastĂłn BenavĂdez (1 goal), leaving only 51% of their regular starting goalscoring threat available
- Strong form of the visitors: Bahia travels with excellent momentum of four wins in their last five matches (DWWWW), whereas the hosts managed only one win during this span
- Head-to-head dominance: Bahia is unbeaten in the last three direct encounters and celebrated a clear 3-0 victory in the most recent match
Risk Factors
- Defensive decline: Athletico PR conceded an average of 2.4 goals in their last five matches, significantly higher than their season average of 1.24
- Severely weakened attack: Without the suspended top scorer Kevin Viveros, the hosts lose their most potent threat in offense
Overview
Direct duel in the upper third of the Serie A table
Athletico PR (4th place, 46 points) host Bahia (5th place, 46 points)
The venue is the Arena de Baixada on September 20, 2026, at 10:30 PM
Both teams are tied on points and fighting to stay close to the very top
The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 43%
Form
Athletico PR is showing inconsistent form with a DWDLD record
Bahia travels with a strong run of four consecutive wins and a DWWWW record
The visitors earned 13 out of 15 possible points from their last five matches
Athletico PR managed only a single victory in this period
Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Athletico PR is defensively stable at home, conceding only 10 goals in 15 home matches
Bahia is dangerous on the road, averaging 1.54 goals scored per away game
The home side recently averaged 6.6 shots on target per match
Bahia recently dominated possession, averaging 58% in recent matches
Both teams scored in 18 of Bahia's 27 matches this season
Head-to-Head
Bahia dominates the recent direct record with 2 wins out of 3 duels
Athletico PR is still waiting for their first victory against this opponent
The last head-to-head encounter ended in a clear 3-0 victory for Bahia on April 1, 2026
In 3 duels, Bahia scored a total of 7 goals while Athletico PR only scored twice
Key Players
Lucas Esquivel scored 1 goal and provided 5 assists in 18 appearances
Stiven Mendoza has 5 goals and 1 assist in 27 games
Leozinho has already scored 4 times in 13 league matches
Luciano Juba has impressed with 9 goals and 1 assist in 23 games
Rodrigo Nestor contributed 1 goal and 4 assists in 20 matches
Alejo Veliz has already scored 3 goals in just 8 matches
Goalkeepers
Goalkeeper Mycael played 3 matches with an average rating of 6.40 for the hosts
Ronaldo guarded Bahia's goal in 18 matches with a strong rating of 7.13
Both teams have recorded 8 clean sheets each this season
Influences
The match will be played on the natural grass of the Arena de Baixada
An average of 2.6 goals per match were scored in recent games at this venue
Both the hosts' strong home defense with only 0.67 goals conceded per home game and Bahia's away goals will impact the game