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Serie A

Bragantino - Mirassol

10/07/2026, 10:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Bragantino
1.7
Total xG
2.6
Mirassol
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
BRAMIR

Bragantino

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.33
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.07
Isidro Pitta on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
Agustín Sant'Anna  on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Rodriguinho not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
11% of goal output missing (only 84% available)

Mirassol

Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.35
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.07
Alesson on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Mirassol: 33% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 15)

  • 2
    Mirassol: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

27%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

45%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Tactical advantage: Bragantino recently averaged a strong 6.6 shots on target per match
  • Form contrast: Mirassol shows a positive trend with two wins and two draws recently, unlike Bragantino's negative run
  • Home vs. away record: Bragantino concedes just 0.88 goals per home game, while Mirassol concedes 2.1 goals per away match on average
Risk Factors
  • Weakened squad: Bragantino is missing three key players, leaving only 84% of their usual starting lineup strength available
  • Lack of efficiency: Bragantino's goal scoring is stalling recently with 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.2
  • Short recovery: Bragantino has only 4 days of rest since their last match, compared to Mirassol's 18 days of recovery
Overview

Bragantino host Mirassol at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques

Serie A match on October 7, 2026, 10:30 PM

Mid-table duel between 11th and 15th place

Only four points separate the two teams before this kickoff

The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 55%

The expected goal ratio is 1.69 to 0.89 in favor of the hosts

Form

Bragantino is on a downward trend with the form LLDLL

No wins in their last five matches with four losses recorded

Mirassol shows much stronger form with DLWDW

The visitors secured two wins and two draws recently

Statistics

Bragantino scores an average of 1.18 goals and concedes 1.14 goals per match

At home, their defense is solid, conceding just 0.88 goals per game

Mirassol concedes a highly vulnerable average of 2.1 goals away from home

The visitors have failed to keep a clean sheet in ten away matches

Head-to-Head

Three head-to-head matches in the past two years

Two wins for Bragantino and one draw

The last encounter ended 1:0 for Bragantino on April 5, 2026

Mirassol is still waiting for their first win in this matchup

Key Players

Lucas Barbosa is Bragantino's driving force with 5 goals and 2 assists this season

Juninho Capixaba stabilizes the team with a strong rating of 7.10

Igor Formiga shines for the visitors with 4 goals and 5 assists this season

Eduardo is Mirassol's most dangerous midfielder with 6 goals

Goalkeepers

Tiago Volpi started 21 matches in goal, recording a solid rating of 7.06

Bragantino kept 8 clean sheets so far this season

Walter made 24 appearances for Mirassol, holding a rating of 6.83

Mirassol managed only 2 clean sheets in the entire campaign

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques

The weather forecast predicts moderate rain at 24.13°C

Home advantage provides Bragantino with defensive stability, yielding 5 clean sheets

Matches at this venue have seen an average of 2.4 goals per game across 5 matches

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