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Serie A

Athletico PR - Atlético Mineiro

10/08/2026, 11:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Athletico PR
1.5
Total xG
2.3
Atlético Mineiro
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
APAM

Athletico PR

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.29
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.23
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.23
Gastón Benavídez not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists)
Leozinho on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)

Atlético Mineiro

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.01
Vitor Hugo  on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Athletico PR: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Atlético Mineiro: 38% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 16)

  • 3
    Tomás Cuello: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

30%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Offensive advantage for the home team averaging 2.4 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.7
  • Strong home defense of Athletico PR conceding only 0.69 goals per game in their own stadium
  • High home win probability of 49% calculated by the mathematical model
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability of the home team conceding 2.4 goals per game recently compared to the season average of 1.23
  • Limited data availability on head-to-head encounters
Overview

Athletico PR host Atlético Mineiro in Serie A

Match at Arena de Baixada on October 8, 2026, 11:00 PM

Clash between third and seventh place in the standings

Home team enters as favorite with 49 points

Visitors hope to close the gap with 43 points

Form

Athletico PR show a form curve of WDLDW with a win in their last match

Atlético Mineiro recorded a form of WLWDW on the road recently

Home team has been strong recently averaging 2.4 goals per game

Visitors show stable form scoring consistently around 1.4 goals per game

Statistics

Athletico PR score an average of 1.56 goals per home match

Hosts boast a solid defense conceding just 0.69 goals per home game

Atlético Mineiro concede an average of 1.6 goals per away match

Historical venue stats show an average of 2.8 goals per game

Head-to-Head

Three head-to-head matches in recent history

Atlético Mineiro celebrated two wins while Athletico PR won once

The last direct encounter ended 2-1 for Atlético Mineiro

A total of 5 goals have been scored in these duels so far

Key Players

Kevin Viveros impresses for the home team with 18 goals this season

Lucas Esquivel has already contributed 2 goals and 5 assists

Tomás Cuello shines for the visitors with 5 goals and a 7.1 rating

Goalkeepers

Mycael starts in goal for the home side with a 6.53 average rating

Gabriel Delfim guards the visitors' goal with a 6.9 rating

Hosts kept 5 clean sheets in home matches this season

Visitors achieved 3 clean sheets in away matches this term

Influences

Match is played on grass at the Arena de Baixada

Weather is warm at 26.97°C with a clear sky

Strong home record for the hosts with only 11 goals conceded in 16 home games

Mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 49%

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