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Serie A

Vitória - Chapecoense

10/07/2026, 11:00 PM

4 : 0
Expected Goals
Vitória
1.4
Total xG
2.4
Chapecoense
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:0

10%

1:0

10%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
VITCHA

Vitória

Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
-0.24
Standings advantage (pos 13 vs 20, 7 places gap)
+0.05
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.02
10% of goal output missing (only 89% available)

Chapecoense

Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.89
Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 13, 7 places gap)
-0.08
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.02
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.1 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Chapecoense: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 2
    Chapecoense: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

30%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Strong home defense: Vitória conceded an average of only 0.67 goals per home match and kept 9 home clean sheets
  • Chapecoense's away struggles: The visitors concede 2.40 goals per away match on average and have kept 0 clean sheets on the road
  • Mathematical model advantage: Calculations predict a home win probability of 41% compared to 28% for an away victory
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability of the visitors: Chapecoense concedes a high average of 1.96 goals per match over the entire season
  • Missing defensive players for the hosts: Valuable defenders like N. de Souza Mendes and R. Ramos Lima are unavailable due to injuries
Overview

Vitória hosts bottom-placed Chapecoense at the Estádio Manoel Barradas

Serie A fixture on October 7, 2026, 11:00 PM

Vitória is in 13th place with 33 points, while the visitors are in 20th place with 18 points

Form

Vitória shows moderate form with LLWDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They recently suffered a 1-3 home loss against Cruzeiro, totaling 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

Chapecoense travels with a form of WLWLD

The visitors secured a 1-1 draw against Atlético Mineiro in their last match, recording 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Statistics

Vitória averages 1.00 goal scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match

At home, their defense is exceptionally strong with only 0.67 goals conceded per game and 9 clean sheets

Chapecoense averages 1.07 goals scored but struggles away with 2.40 goals conceded per match and 0 clean sheets

Head-to-Head

Only 1 head-to-head match has taken place in the last two years

The last encounter on April 5, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

The historical record between the two teams is completely even

Key Players

Renê is the top scorer for the hosts with 9 goals this season, including 4 goals in his last 5 matches

Marcinho leads Chapecoense's attack with 5 goals and shows rising form with 2 goals in recent matches

Matheuzinho has contributed 3 goals and 2 assists for the home side this season

Goalkeepers

Lucas Arcanjo played 24 matches for Vitória and registered 9 home clean sheets this season

Anderson has started 13 times in goal for the visitors but has yet to keep a clean sheet away from home

Influences

The match will be played at the Estádio Manoel Barradas, which averages 2.40 goals per game

Weather conditions indicate a warm 26.35°C with overcast clouds

Vitória's home defensive strength of just 12 goals conceded in 18 home games favors the hosts

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