Serie A
Internacional - Corinthians
10/07/2026, 10:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.0
0.8
0:0
15%1:0
15%1:1
14%2:0
10%0:1
9%What influences the xG?
Internacional
Corinthians
The Lab
- 1Internacional: 3 cards per game (30 yellows, 3 reds in 11 games)
- 2Corinthians: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- 3Corinthians: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
45%
Draw
33%
Away Win
22%
Goals
Over 1.5
61%
Under 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
32%
Under 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
14%
Under 3.5
86%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
78%
Away or Draw
55%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
39%
No
61%
Key Factors
- Form gap: While Corinthians enters the match with a run of five consecutive defeats, Internacional has looked more stable in comparison
- Offensive upward trend: The home side averaged 1.5 goals per match in recent games, surpassing their overall seasonal average of 1.2
- Statistical advantage: The mathematical model indicates a strong 79% probability of a home win or a draw
Risk Factors
- Internacional registered an average of only 3.0 shots on target per match in recent games
- Corinthians' goalscoring has stalled recently, averaging just 0.8 goals per match compared to their seasonal average of 1.2
Overview
Internacional hosts Corinthians at Estadio Beira-Rio
Serie A fixture on October 7, 2026, 10:30 PM
Internacional currently sits in 18th place with 28 points
Corinthians travels to the venue in 14th place with 32 points
Both teams are fighting in the lower half of the table and need points desperately
Form
Form string Internacional: DLLWL
Form string Corinthians: LLLLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Internacional recorded one win and one draw in their last five matches
Corinthians has lost all of their previous five games
The hosts possess a slightly more stable trend compared to the visitors' ongoing crisis
Statistics
Internacional scores 1.07 goals and concedes 1.29 goals per game on average this season
Corinthians scores 1.04 goals and concedes 1.14 on average
The home side secured six clean sheets during this campaign
The visiting side recorded ten clean sheets in total
Both teams found the net in 16 of the 28 matches played by Internacional
Head-to-Head
Five head-to-head matches in recent years
Two wins for Internacional, one win for Corinthians, and two draws
The last meeting ended in a 1-0 win for Internacional on April 5, 2026
The goal difference across these five matches remains balanced at 7-7
Key Players
Alan Patrick (4 goals, 1 assist, avg. rating 7.14) dictates the tempo for the home side
Alexandro Bernabei stands out with 4 goals and 1 assist this season
Vitinho has contributed 2 goals and 3 assists so far
Rodrigo Garro remains the key threat for the visitors with 3 goals and 6 assists
Yuri Alberto scored 3 goals and registered 2 assists in 17 appearances
Kaio CĂ©sar adds attacking danger with 2 goals and 2 assists
Not selected: Johan Carbonero (7 goals, 4 assists), Bruno Henrique (2 goals, 1 assist), Matheus Bahia (0 goals, 2 assists)
Goalkeepers
Anthoni guards the goal for Internacional with an average rating of 6.66
Hugo Souza starts between the posts for Corinthians with a rating of 6.72
The hosts recorded six clean sheets during this league campaign
The visitors kept ten clean sheets in the season so far
Influences
The game takes place at Estadio Beira-Rio
Stadium statistics show an average of 2.4 goals per match
Both teams scored in 80% of matches played at this venue
A temperature of 26.47°C indicates very warm playing conditions