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Serie A

Fluminense - Coritiba

10/09/2026, 12:30 AM

4 : 0
Expected Goals
Fluminense
1.8
Total xG
2.5
Coritiba
0.7
Most Likely Scores

2:0

13%

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
FLUCOR

Fluminense

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.11
AgustĂ­n Canobbio not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists)
IgnĂĄcio on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
RenĂȘ not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Nonato  not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Yeferson Soteldo on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Coritiba

Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-0.60
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.45
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.13
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.13
JoaquĂ­n Lavega not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists)
Tiago CĂłser not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)
JP Chermont not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
28% of goal output missing (only 83% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.4 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Fluminense: 47% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 17)

  • 2
    Coritiba: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Coritiba: 76% of all goals in the second half (13 of 17, last 12 games)

  • 4
    Fluminense: 76% of all goals in the second half (13 of 17, last 12 games)

  • 5
    Fluminense: 5 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

26%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

40%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Strong home defense: Fluminense concedes an average of only 0.93 goals per game at home
  • Offensive threat: Fluminense averaged 5.6 shots on target per game in recent matches
  • Model favorite: The mathematical model calculates a 60% probability for a home victory
Risk Factors
  • Vulnerable defense recently: Fluminense conceded 1.6 goals on average in recent games compared to their 1.33 season average
  • Improving opponent offense: Coritiba is currently scoring more frequently with 1.8 goals on average compared to their 1.4 season average
Overview

Fluminense hosts Coritiba

Serie A match on October 9, 2026, 2:30 AM

Fluminense is currently in 5th place with 48 points

Coritiba is in 9th place with 38 points

The home team enters as favorites with a calculated win probability of 60%

Form

Fluminense's form is WDWLW

They recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss recently

Coritiba travels with a form of WWLDL

The visitors achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last matches

Statistics

Fluminense scores an average of 1.57 goals per game this season

They concede 1.29 goals per match on average

At home Fluminense is strong with 1.6 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game

Coritiba scores 1.32 goals and concedes 1.54 per game on average

On the road the visitors concede an average of 1.71 goals

Head-to-Head

There was 1 direct duel recently

The last meeting ended in a 1:1 draw

The historical goal difference is tied at 1:1

Key Players

Hulk shines with 6 goals and 1 assist this season

Kevin Serna contributed 4 goals and 3 assists

Jefferson Savarino recorded 3 goals and 2 assists

Pedro Rocha leads with 8 goals and 1 assist

Breno Lopes also scored 8 goals and provided 2 assists

Josué excels as playmaker with 1 goal and 11 assists

Goalkeepers

FĂĄbio starts in goal for the hosts and kept 5 clean sheets this season

Pedro Rangel is in goal for the visitors

FĂĄbio has a season average rating of 6.95

Pedro Rangel has a season average rating of 6.89

Influences

The game takes place at Estadio Jornalista MĂĄrio Filho

Extreme heat is expected with temperatures of 33.05°C

The average total goals at this stadium is 2.4 per match

Fluminense's home defensive strength of only 0.93 goals conceded per game is key

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