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Serie A

Santos - Flamengo

10/08/2026, 10:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Santos
1.2
Total xG
2.4
Flamengo
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

0:1

9%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
SANFLA

Santos

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.12
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.12
Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 1, 7 places gap)
-0.09
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
Full strength squad available

Flamengo

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.32
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 8, 7 places gap)
+0.04
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.01
Attack strength (1.37x league average)
+0.01
Giorgian de Arrascaeta not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Guillermo Varela not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Léo Ortiz not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Ayrton Lucas not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Flamengo: first goal in 11 of 12 games (92%)

  • 2
    Samuel Lino: 5 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Santos: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Santos: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 5
    Flamengo: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

31%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Peak performance: Both teams enter the match with a perfect streak of 5 consecutive wins recently
  • Offensive dominance: Flamengo averaged 19.2 total shots per match in recent games
  • Balanced model prediction: The mathematical model suggests a close encounter with a 36% away win probability against 33% for a home win
Risk Factors
  • Absence of starting goalkeeper G. Nascimento Resende Brazão (24 season appearances) due to a shoulder injury
  • Loss of key midfielder G. De Arrascaeta Benedetti (21 season appearances, 3 goals, 4 assists) due to a broken wrist
Overview

Santos host Flamengo at the Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Serie A match on October 8, 2026, 10:30 PM

Flamengo travel as league leaders with 60 points

Santos are currently in 8th place with 41 points

A crucial clash at this stage of the season

Form

Santos: WWWWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Flamengo: WWWWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Both teams are in exceptional form

Santos have won 5 consecutive matches

Flamengo also enter the game on a 5-match winning streak

Statistics

Santos average 1.54 goals scored and 1.46 goals conceded per match

Flamengo impress with an average of 1.96 goals scored and 0.82 goals conceded

At home, Santos average 1.54 goals scored per game

On the road, Flamengo score an average of 1.93 goals per match

Season statistics show 12 clean sheets for Flamengo and 6 for Santos

Head-to-Head

3 head-to-head matches in recent years

Flamengo with 2 wins, Santos with 1 win

Goal difference of 6:4 in favor of Flamengo

The last encounter ended in a 3-1 win for Flamengo

Key Players

Gabriel Barbosa has scored 13 season goals and provided 3 assists

Álvaro Barreal has 5 goals and 1 assist so far

Christian Oliva contributed 2 goals and 2 assists

Pedro leads Flamengo with 16 season goals and 5 assists

Samuel Lino shines with 9 goals and 7 assists

Jorge Carrascal has registered 5 goals and 7 assists

Goalkeepers

Diógenes has played 4 matches in goal for Santos this season

Agustín Rossi has already completed 28 season appearances for Flamengo

Rossi has recorded 12 clean sheets during this campaign

Diógenes has contributed to 3 home clean sheets for Santos

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estádio Urbano Caldeira

The historical average at this venue stands at 3.0 goals per match

Current weather conditions indicate light rain

With a temperature of 23.57°C and 80% humidity

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