Serie A
Palmeiras - Bahia
10/09/2026, 12:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.9
1.3
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Palmeiras
Bahia
The Lab
- 1Palmeiras: first goal in 7 of 9 games (78%)
- 2Palmeiras: 2.8 cards per game (31 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
- 3Palmeiras: 4 of 9 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- 4Bahia: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)
- 5Palmeiras: 70% of all goals in the second half (14 of 20, last 12 games)
- 6Bahia: 61% of all goals in the first half (11 of 18, last 12 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
41%
Draw
28%
Away Win
32%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
68%
Away or Draw
59%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
59%
No
41%
Key Factors
- Offensive form: Palmeiras is currently scoring more frequently (2.3) than their season average (2.0), while Bahia also exceeds their average (1.7) with 2.2 goals
- Tactical threat: Both teams have been highly offensive in recent matches, with Palmeiras averaging 6.0 shots on target and Bahia averaging 6.4
- Squad impact: Palmeiras is missing Mauricio (7 goals) and JoaquĂn Piquerez, reducing the home side's usual goal threat to 85%
Risk Factors
- Bahia concedes an average of 1.50 goals per away match, showing defensive weaknesses on the road
- Palmeiras will be without J. da Silva Dias (meniscus injury) and P. Sampaio Filho (muscle injury)
Overview
Palmeiras host Bahia at the Allianz Parque
Serie A match on October 9, 2026, 1:30 AM
Palmeiras sit in 2nd place with 57 points
Bahia occupy 6th place with 46 points
The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 41%
The model expects 1.53 goals for Palmeiras and 1.34 for Bahia
Form
Palmeiras form: WDDWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The home side is unbeaten in 5 matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws
Bahia form: WWWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The visitors registered 4 wins and 1 loss recently
Palmeiras shows a positive trend, scoring more frequently now than their season average
Statistics
Palmeiras scores an average of 1.68 goals per game and concedes only 0.75
The home team has kept 12 clean sheets this season
Bahia scores an average of 1.54 goals per match while conceding 1.25
In away matches, Bahia concedes an average of 1.50 goals
The stadium averages 2.2 total goals per match
Head-to-Head
5 head-to-head matches in recent years
3 wins for the home team, 2 wins for the away team
Not a single draw in these encounters
The last meeting ended in a 2-1 victory for Palmeiras
Key Players
Andreas Pereira shines with 1 goal and 11 assists, averaging a 7.27 rating
José Manuel López has scored 8 goals and provided 4 assists this season
Vitor Roque has contributed 5 goals and 1 assist so far
Luciano Juba stands out in defense with 9 goals and 1 assist
Erick Pulga scored 3 times in his last 5 games and has 2 assists this season
Alejo Veliz has 3 goals and 1 assist in the current campaign
Goalkeepers
Carlos Miguel impresses in goal for Palmeiras with an average rating of 7.03
The home team has managed to keep 12 clean sheets this campaign
Ronaldo features in goal for Bahia with a strong season rating of 7.15
The visiting goalkeeper averaged a 7.27 rating recently, with his team recording 8 clean sheets overall
Influences
The match takes place at the Allianz Parque on a grass surface
The venue has averaged 2.2 goals per game in recent matches
Weather conditions show light rain with hot temperatures of 32.63°C
The high humidity of 41% could influence the pace of the game