Serie A
Botafogo - Vasco da Gama
10/07/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.2
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
13%1:0
11%0:1
10%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Botafogo
Vasco da Gama
The Lab
- 1Vasco da Gama: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- 2Botafogo: 3.1 cards per game (34 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
- 3Vasco da Gama: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 13 total)
- 4Vasco da Gama: 77% of all goals in the second half (10 of 13, last 12 games)
- 5Botafogo: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
36%
Draw
33%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
65%
Under 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
37%
Under 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
17%
Under 3.5
83%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
64%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Key Factors
- Historical dominance: Botafogo won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches with an 11:2 goal difference
- Away defensive struggles: Vasco da Gama concedes an average of 2.30 goals per away match this season
- Offensive uptrend: Vasco da Gama averaged a strong 6.6 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
- Botafogo's declining efficiency with recently only 1.0 goals scored on average compared to a season average of 1.6 goals
- Vasco da Gama's high vulnerability on the road with an average of 2.30 goals conceded per away game
- Suspension of Andrés Gómez weakens the visitors' attack by 5 goals and 3 assists registered this season
Overview
Botafogo (12th place, 35 points) host Vasco da Gama (16th place, 31 points) at the EstĂĄdio Nilton Santos
Serie A match on October 7, 2026, 11:30 PM
A crucial mid-table and relegation battle clash
Form
Botafogo shows inconsistent form with LDDWL consisting of 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses
Botafogo's goal production is stalling with 1.0 goals recently compared to a season average of 1.6 goals
Vasco da Gama exhibits a positive trend with LWLWW consisting of 3 wins and 2 losses
The visitors are currently scoring more frequently with 2.2 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.3 goals
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Botafogo scores an average of 1.50 goals and concedes 1.25 goals per home game
Vasco da Gama struggles defensively away from home, conceding an average of 2.30 goals while scoring 1.30 goals per match
Overall, Botafogo has had 19 matches with both teams scoring and 18 games with over 2.5 goals
At the Nilton Santos, matches averaged 2.80 total goals with both teams scoring in 4 out of 5 fixtures
Head-to-Head
Clear historical advantage for the hosts in the last 5 head-to-head matches
Botafogo recorded 4 wins while Vasco da Gama did not win a single match alongside 1 draw
The goal difference stands at 11:2 in favor of Botafogo
The last encounter ended in a 2:1 victory for Botafogo on April 5, 2026
Key Players
Danilo shines in midfield with 9 goals and 2 assists this season, averaging a 7.24 rating
Arthur Cabral has contributed 7 goals and 1 assist so far this season
Alex Telles stabilizes the defense with 3 goals and 5 assists to his name
Facundo Colidio impresses in attack with 3 goals and 1 assist, holding an overall rating of 7.38
Thiago Mendes controls the midfield with 4 goals and 1 assist so far
Cuiabano excels in defense with 2 goals and 3 assists alongside a rating of 7.20
Goalkeepers
Gabriel Batista has guarded the goal in 6 matches this season, maintaining an average rating of 7.02
The hosts kept a total of 4 clean sheets so far this season
LĂ©o Jardim started in 27 games for the visitors, holding an average rating of 6.68
His team recorded a total of 3 clean sheets during this campaign
Influences
Botafogo benefits from home advantage, scoring a solid average of 1.50 goals per home fixture
The match is played on a natural grass surface at the EstĂĄdio Nilton Santos
Heavy intensity rain at 26.5 degrees Celsius and 73% humidity will impact playing conditions