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Serie A

Remo - Grêmio

10/07/2026, 10:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Remo
1.3
Total xG
2.1
Grêmio
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

14%

0:0

14%

2:0

10%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
REMGRÊ

Remo

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.27
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.06
Full strength squad available

Grêmio

Attack weakness (0.54x league average)
-0.49
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.01
Gustavo Martins not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
Erick Noriega not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 85% available)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Grêmio: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    Remo: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (11 points lost)

  • 3
    Grêmio: 3.1 cards per game (36 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)

  • 4
    Remo with Vitor Bueno starting: 1.2 goals/game, without him: 0.7 (14/6 games, last 28)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

32%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical model favors Remo with a 46% home win probability and a 78% home-or-draw chance
  • Grêmio struggles heavily on the road, conceding an average of 3.14 goals per away match
  • Grêmio has to cope without the unlisted Gustavo Martins (3 goals, 2 assists) and Erick Noriega (1 goal, 1 assist)
Risk Factors
  • Remo is in a major form crisis with 5 consecutive defeats
  • Grêmio is finding form and currently scores more frequently (1.5) than their season average (1.3)
  • Extreme heat of 35.26°C could severely impact the players' physical condition
Overview

Remo (19th place, 23 points) host Grêmio (17th place, 29 points) at the Estádio Estadual Jornalista Edgar Augusto Proença

Serie A match on October 7, 2026, 10:30 PM

A crucial relegation battle where both teams need points to climb the table

Form

Remo enters with a form of LLLLL after 5 consecutive defeats

Grêmio shows a record of WLLLD with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses recently

Both teams are struggling to find consistent positive results

Statistics

Remo averages 1.14 goals scored and 1.68 goals conceded per match

Grêmio averages 1.07 goals scored and 1.36 goals conceded this season

On the road Grêmio concedes a high average of 3.14 goals per game

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between these teams

The only encounter ended in a scoreless 0:0 draw on April 5, 2026

Neither team has established dominance in this matchup so far

Key Players

Vitor Bueno scored 4 goals and provided 3 assists with a 6.95 rating

Yago Pikachu has registered 3 goals and 2 assists this season

Carlos Vinícius is the main threat with 10 goals and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Marcelo Rangel guards the goal for Remo with a season rating of 7.02

Weverton is in goal for Grêmio with a strong season rating of 7.06

Both keepers will be key to keeping a clean sheet in this match

Influences

Extremely hot weather is expected with temperatures of 35.26°C and clear skies

The stadium average stands at 3.0 goals per match on grass surface

The home advantage could be a deciding factor in this warm weather clash

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