Serie A
Cruzeiro - São Paulo
10/08/2026, 12:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.2
0.9
1:1
15%0:0
12%1:0
12%2:0
9%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Cruzeiro
São Paulo
The Lab
- 1Cruzeiro: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- 2São Paulo: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (13 points lost)
- 3São Paulo: 9 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 4Matheus Pereira: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- 5Cruzeiro: 73% of all goals in the second half (16 of 22, last 12 games)
- 6São Paulo: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
44%
Draw
32%
Away Win
25%
Goals
Over 1.5
67%
Under 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
39%
Under 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
75%
Away or Draw
56%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
46%
No
54%
Key Factors
- Cruzeiro scored more recently (2.0) than their season average (1.6), averaging 5.4 shots on target in recent matches
- The absence of São Paulo's top scorer Luciano (9 goals, 2 assists) significantly weakens the visitors' offense
- Mathematical analysis favors Cruzeiro with a calculated home win probability of 44%
Risk Factors
- São Paulo concede an average of 2.22 goals per away game
- Cruzeiro must play without Keny Arroyo (4 goals, 4 assists) and Fagner (0 goals, 4 assists)
- São Paulo dominated recent encounters, winning 3 of the last 5 matches
Overview
Cruzeiro host São Paulo at the Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto
Serie A match on October 8, 2026, 1:30 AM
Cruzeiro are in 6th place with 45 points, São Paulo are 10th with 36 points
Both teams compete for crucial points in the mid-table
Form
Cruzeiro's recent form is WLWLW with 3 wins and 2 losses in the last 5 matches
Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
São Paulo show a form of WWLWL with 3 wins and 2 losses
Cruzeiro won their last match 3-1 against Vitória, while São Paulo lost 1-2 to Santos
Statistics
Cruzeiro score an average of 1.50 goals per game this season and concede 1.43
São Paulo average 1.18 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per match
São Paulo's away weakness is highlighted by 2.22 goals conceded per away game
At home, Cruzeiro are defensively more stable, conceding only 1.00 goals per game
Head-to-Head
Out of the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won three times
Cruzeiro recorded one win, with one match ending in a draw
The last encounter in April 2026 resulted in a clear 4-1 home victory for São Paulo
São Paulo scored a total of 8 goals in these matches, while Cruzeiro scored 3
Key Players
Matheus Pereira is a key midfielder with 9 goals and 4 assists this season
Kaio Jorge has already contributed 7 goals and one assist this season
Lucas Romero completes the midfield with 2 goals and 3 assists
Forward Jonathan Calleri shines with 8 league goals so far
Artur brings danger on the wings with 2 goals and 2 assists
Marcos Antônio directs the play in midfield with one goal and 2 assists
Not nominated: Keny Arroyo (4 goals, 4 assists), Fagner (0 goals, 4 assists) and Luciano (9 goals, 2 assists)
Goalkeepers
Otávio Costa guards Cruzeiro's net and has made 15 appearances this season
At home, he contributed to Cruzeiro's 3 clean sheets
Carlos Coronel starts in goal for São Paulo with 2 appearances this season
São Paulo have secured 6 clean sheets overall during this campaign
Influences
The match will be played in very warm conditions at 30°C under clear skies
Humidity is at 38%
Cruzeiro's home record at the Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto shows an average of 2.8 goals per game
Both teams scored in 4 out of the last 5 home games