Match report ā
Bahia ā Mirassol1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Bahia
1.90
Total xG
2.82
Mirassol
0.91
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bahia | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.35 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 6, 9 places gap) | ā0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 15, 9 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Erick on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| NicolƔs Acevedo not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| EduardoĀ on the bench (6 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| JoĆ£o Victor not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 32% of goal output missing (only 88% available) |
Key factors
- Statistical model gives Bahia a 59% win probability at home
- Mirassol concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
- Erick Pulga is in strong form with 3 goals in his last 5 appearances
Risks
- Bahia has only 2 days of rest since their last match
- Mirassol is missing J. Carroll Santana due to a Red Card Suspension
- Bahia lost their last 2 consecutive matches
All probabilities
Result
Bahia59%
Draw25%
Mirassol16%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Double chance
Bahia or draw84%
Mirassol or draw41%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Bahia: 65% of all goals in the first half (11 of 17, last 12 games)
- Bahia: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 17)
- Mirassol: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Mirassol: 31% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 16)
Lineups
Bahia 4-3-3 Ā· Mirassol 4-3-3
Bahia
- 1 R. de Oliveira Strada
- 44 M. Ferreira da Silva
- 33 D. de Duarte Macedo
- 3 M. Ojeda
- 46 Luciano
- 6 J. de Souza Oliveira
- 8 C. Souza e Silva
- 11 R. Bertalia
- 99 C. Olivera Ibarra
- 9 A. VĆ©liz
- 16 E. da Costa Farias
Mirassol
- 22 W. Capeloza Artune
- 32 I. Marques Paciencia Cardoso
- 2 L. da Cruz Oliveira
- 3 W. Estefani Machado
- 6 R. da Silva
- 27 Denilson
- 25 A. Moura Neto
- 10 F. Hyun Sol Kim
- 19 G. Henric da Silva
- 30 B. Santos de Oliveira
- 77 A. dos Santos Batista
Substitutes
- 17 G. Herrera
- 31 R. GĆ³mez
- 23 M. Sanabria
- 27 E. Stum
- 7 A. da Silva Santos Junior
- 12 W. da Silva
- 14 E. Conrado Carvalho
- 66 J. de Lima Costa
- 15 M. AraĆŗjo Villar
- 10 Ć. de Barros Ribeiro
- 4 V. Soares dos Santos
- 18 L. LĆ³pez
- 12 V. Chuab Zamblauskas
- 7 S. Cardozo
- 20 D. Fortunato Borges
- 96 C. Ferreira de Souza
- 90 C. Lecciolle Thomazella
- 9 A. Silva de Aguiar
- 33 C. de Oliveira Alves
- 95 E. Mendes dos Santos
- 80 W. Alves Maximo
- 17 F. Marques Maciel
- 44 G. Knesowitsch
- 99 J. AssunĆ§Ć£o de Araujo Filho
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