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Serie A10/12/2026, 10:30 PM

Chapecoense – Athletico PR1 : 4

Why the model thinks so

Chapecoense
1.21
Total xG
2.53
Athletico PR
1.31
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorChapecoenseAthletico PR
Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)+0.58
Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 4, 16 places gap)−0.21
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)+0.16
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average)+0.16
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 20, 16 places gap)+0.09
Attack weakness (0.79x league average)−0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)−0.02
G. BenavĂ­dez not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.7 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Athletico PR currently score more frequently (2.2 goals per match) than their season average (1.7 goals) and averaged 7.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Significant standings gap between 4th-placed Athletico PR (50 points) and bottom side Chapecoense (18 points)
  • The mathematical model favors Athletico PR with a 37% win probability compared to 33% for Chapecoense

Risks

  • G. BenavĂ­dez is missing for Athletico PR due to a calf injury
  • Chapecoense concede an average of 1.71 goals per home match
  • Athletico PR concede an average of 1.75 goals per away match

All probabilities

Result
Chapecoense33%
Draw30%
Athletico PR37%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Double chance
Chapecoense or draw63%
Athletico PR or draw67%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%

Most likely scores

1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
1:4
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Athletico PR: 7 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
  2. Chapecoense: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
  3. Athletico PR: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
  4. Chapecoense: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)

Lineups

Chapecoense 4-2-3-1 · Athletico PR 3-4-2-1

Chapecoense
  • 98 A. Silva Da Paixao
  • 23 L. Marques dos Santos
  • 21 K. Faria Gomes
  • 4 J. Silveira dos Santos
  • 91 B. de Jesus Pacheco
  • 88 Y. da Costa Rocha
  • 16 B. dos Santos
  • 7 M. de Sousa JĂșnior
  • 10 G. Oliveira Cardoso
  • 31 M. Garcez
  • 9 T. Silva de Oliveira
Athletico PR
  • 1 M. Pontes Moreira
  • 4 A. dos Santos Barbosa Dias
  • 33 J. Aguirre Tabares
  • 37 L. Esquivel
  • 12 G. Moraes Junior
  • 16 J. Alves dos Santos
  • 14 L. Dias
  • 7 J. Mendoza Valencia
  • 21 L. Caetano Silva
  • 8 J. Machado Cruz
  • 9 K. Viveros Rodallega
Substitutes
  • 80 M. Carvallho Vianna
  • 15 R. de Albuquerque Marques
  • 27 C. Reijers de Olivera
  • 19 D. Antunes da Silva
  • 11 Y. Bolasie Yala
  • 6 G. Piola Minozzo
  • 3 E. Domachowski
  • 30 M. Aurelio Palhares Guimaraes
  • 29 F. Rossi Donazar
  • 20 B. Nunes de Barros
  • 55 R. Macedo Soares
  • 14 G. Werner
  • 35 R. Azevedo Tiago
  • 27 J. Portilla Orozco
  • 10 B. Zapelli
  • 53 E. Kogitzki Anastacio
  • 70 R. Peixoto Nepomuceno
  • 23 A. Melo dos Santos Neto
  • 5 A. Costa
  • 3 L. Pinheiro da Conceição
  • 2 G. Leite dos Santos
  • 47 F. Chiqueti Bandeira
  • 26 C. de Jesus Passos
  • 19 J. Rivaldo Pinto

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