Match report →
Coritiba – Botafogo1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Coritiba
1.56
Total xG
2.75
Botafogo
1.20
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Coritiba | Botafogo |
|---|---|---|
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Breno Lopes on the bench (8 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Bruno Melo not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| JP Chermont not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 94% available) | ||
| Álvaro Montoro on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Vulnerable away defense: Botafogo concede an average of 2.08 goals per away match
- Venue goals trend: The last 5 matches at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira averaged 3.2 total goals
- Model edge: Coritiba enter as slight favorites with a 44% win probability and 1.56 expected goals
Risks
- Short recovery time: Coritiba play with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Defensive struggles: Coritiba averaged 3.2 goals conceded per match in recent games
- Away defensive record: Botafogo concede avg 2.08 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Coritiba44%
Draw28%
Botafogo28%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Double chance
Coritiba or draw72%
Botafogo or draw56%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Coritiba: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Coritiba: 77% of all goals in the second half (10 of 13, last 12 games)
- Coritiba: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Coritiba 4-2-3-1 · Botafogo 4-2-3-1
Coritiba
- 1 P. Luccas Morisco da Silva
- 14 F. Bustos
- 23 T. Coiser
- 55 J. Maranhão Oliveira
- 6 F. Rocha Andrade
- 21 T. dos Santos
- 19 S. Gómez Londoño
- 32 P. Rocha Neves
- 10 J. Soares Pesqueira
- 7 J. Lavega Colzada
- 18 P. da Silva Souza
Botafogo
- 12 G. Batista de Souza
- 2 V. da Silva
- 5 N. Ferraresi Hernández
- 21 F. Marçal de Oliveira
- 13 A. Telles
- 8 D. dos Santos de Oliveira
- 25 A. Marques Loureiro
- 22 H. Ziyech
- 6 C. Medina
- 11 M. Martins Silva dos Santos
- 19 A. Mendonça Cabral
Substitutes
- 5 N. Fonseca
- 17 B. Ocampo Ferreira
- 78 R. de Oliveira Junior
- 36 V. dos Santos
- 77 B. Vasconcelos Lopes
- 2 G. de Jesus da Silva
- 39 G. Silva de Oliveira
- 3 M. Pereira Roque
- 22 P. De Faria Rangel
- 4 R. da Silva Moledo
- 99 R. Rodrigues Silva
- 66 R. Silva Nascimento
- 90 D. Pereira da Silva
- 29 P. da Silva
- 37 K. Barria
- 9 F. das Chagas Soares dos Santos
- 10 ?. Montoro
- 7 J. dos Santos Junior
- 4 M. Ponte Costa
- 59 K. Almeida Toledo
- 34 E. Justino
- 75 V. de Melo Moura
- 17 W. Stellion Lisboa Oliveira
- 91 D. Andrade
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