Match report →
Grêmio – Internacional1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Grêmio
1.12
Total xG
2.62
Internacional
1.50
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Grêmio | Internacional |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.56 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.03 | |
| Gustavo Martins on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Erick Noriega on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Johan Carbonero on the bench (7 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Bruno Henrique on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Matheus Bahia on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Internacional is scoring more recently (1.6 goals) than their season avg (1.2) with a 44% win probability calculated
- Grêmio is in a form slump with 0 wins in their last 5 matches
- Arena do Grêmio averages 2.4 goals per match with an 80% BTTS rate
Risks
- Internacional concedes an average of 1.54 goals per away match
- Grêmio averages only 1.05 goals scored per home match this season
All probabilities
Result
Grêmio27%
Draw29%
Internacional44%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Double chance
Grêmio or draw56%
Internacional or draw73%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Grêmio: 3.3 cards per game (39 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- Grêmio: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Internacional: 3 cards per game (31 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)
- Internacional with Alerrandro starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (12/8 games, last 29)
- Internacional: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
- Grêmio: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)
Lineups
Grêmio 4-3-3 · Internacional 3-4-2-1
Grêmio
- 1 W. Pereira da Silva
- 27 D. Caito Barcellos Oliveira dos Santos
- 82 W. Gomes da Silva Santos
- 4 W. Kannemann
- 23 M. Rodrigues Xavier
- 10 F. Krovinović
- 15 D. Barbosa da Silva
- 20 M. Villasanti Rolón
- 7 C. Pavón
- 95 C. Alves Morais
- 9 F. Amuzu
Internacional
- 12 A. Spier Souza
- 15 B. Gomes da Silva Clevelário
- 25 G. Mercado
- 18 J. Ferreira Junior
- 35 B. Aguirre
- 5 R. Villagra
- 29 T. Maia Alencar
- 26 Alexandro Bernabei
- 28 V. Naum dos Santos
- 9 A. Barra Mansa Realino de Souza
- 10 A. Lourenço
Substitutes
- 11 Tetê
- 2 F. Balbuena González
- 8 E. Noriega
- 99 J. Enamorado Gómez
- 22 M. Braithwait
- 12 G. Hamester Grando
- 3 W. Calvelo de Souza
- 5 J. Nardoni
- 38 C. de Oliveira
- 14 M. Rocha Aquino
- 6 G. Martins de Souza Santos
- 18 J. Maturano dos Santos
- 54 P. Crisostomo Pinheiro
- 30 C. Goncalves Ferreira da Silva
- 17 N. Eliasson
- 4 F. Torres Caicedo
- 7 J. Carbonero Balanta
- 23 M. Cunha Queiroz
- 41 V. da Conceição Ribeiro
- 27 P. Lucas de Paula
- 6 Matheus Bahia
- 16 R. da Silva Souza
- 8 B. Corsini
- 44 J. Alves de Morais Francisco
- 49 João Bezerra
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