Match report →
Atlético Mineiro – Santos2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Atlético Mineiro
1.42
Total xG
2.46
Santos
1.04
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético Mineiro | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.00 | |
| Bernard not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Tomás Cuello not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Reinier on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Renan Lodi on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Maycon on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 50% of goal output missing (only 45% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Squad impact: Only 46% of goal threat available, without Bernard, Tomás Cuello, Reinier, Renan Lodi, Maycon
- Form surge: Santos score more frequently recently (2.2) than their season average (1.6) and are 5 games unbeaten
- Model prediction: The calculated probabilities assign a 44% home win chance
Risks
- Schedule load: Both teams play with only 3 days rest since their last match
- Away defensive concern: Santos concede an average of 1.53 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Atlético Mineiro44%
Draw30%
Santos26%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Double chance
Atlético Mineiro or draw74%
Santos or draw56%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Santos: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Atlético Mineiro: 33% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 18)
Lineups
Atlético Mineiro 4-3-3 · Santos 4-2-3-1
Atlético Mineiro
- 1 G. Delfim Ferreira
- 2 Natanael
- 3 L. Duarte da Silva
- 14 V. Franchescoli de Souza
- 36 K. Resende
- 15 K. Castaño Gil
- 21 A. Franco Palma
- 5 A. Gomes da Costa
- 30 V. Gomes Silva
- 18 T. Borbas
- 17 I. Silveira Gomes
Santos
- 1 D. da Silva
- 23 R. de Almeida
- 4 L. Verissimo da Silva
- 15 W. Souza Arão da Silva
- 31 G. Escobar
- 48 G. Henrique Pereira
- 28 C. Oliva Giménez
- 8 G. Silva Bontempo
- 32 B. Rollheiser
- 7 E. Sousa Soares
- 9 G. Barbosa Almeida
Substitutes
- 8 M. de Andrade Barberan
- 23 A. Preciado Quiñónez
- 27 A. Minda García
- 29 C. Soares
- 13 L. Silveira Neves Vojnović
- 39 M. Cissé
- 92 E. Pereira Rodrigues
- 6 R. Lodi dos Santos
- 40 V. Fernandes Chaves Teixeira
- 19 R. Carvalho
- 31 R. Pinto Alves Assunção
- 53 P. Lemos Barbosa
- 17 G. Caballero
- 30 M. Terceros
- 34 J. Silva Martins
- 33 R. da Silva Barbosa
- 16 T. da Silva
- 22 Á. Barreal
- 18 I. de Souza
- 5 J. Schmidt Urbano
- 14 L. Peres Petroni
- 11 P. Coutinho Correia
- 45 V. Moreira de Lima
- 81 S. e Silva
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →