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Bragantino – Cruzeiro4 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Bragantino
1.78
Total xG
2.92
Cruzeiro
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bragantino | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.35 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Agustín Sant'Anna on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Lucas Romero not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Fagner on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Model edge: The calculated home win probability stands at 51%
- Offensive threat: Bragantino averaged 7.8 shots on target in recent matches
- Key playmaker: Matheus Pereira recorded 3 goals and 3 assists over his last 5 matches for Cruzeiro
Risks
- Defensive away struggles: Cruzeiro concede an average of 2.00 goals per away match
- Home side form slump: Bragantino are winless in their last 5 matches (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)
- Injury toll: Both teams are missing 5 sidelined players each
All probabilities
Result
Bragantino51%
Draw26%
Cruzeiro23%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.567%
Double chance
Bragantino or draw77%
Cruzeiro or draw49%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
4:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Bragantino: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (9 points lost)
- Matheus Pereira: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Cruzeiro: 73% of all goals in the second half (16 of 22, last 12 games)
- Bragantino: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Cruzeiro: 6 of 21 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Bragantino 4-2-3-1 · Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
Bragantino
- 18 T. Volpi
- 52 R. da Silva
- 16 G. Marques Alves
- 2 G. Rodríguez Ferrari
- 29 L. da Rocha Junior
- 7 E. Dos Santos Rodrigues
- 5 F. Silva de Freitas
- 21 L. Barbosa
- 47 W. de Souza Barreto
- 11 F. Dos Santos Pedro
- 8 E. Colcenti Antunes
Cruzeiro
- 81 O. Rezende Costa
- 12 W. de Asevedo Furtado
- 43 J. Messias Ferreira
- 34 J. de Jesus Alves
- 27 G. Rojas
- 5 J. Gomes da Silva
- 8 G. Santos da Silva
- 99 K. Arroyo Alvarado
- 10 M. Costa Pereira
- 38 F. de Morais Barbosa Penna dos Santos
- 19 K. Pinto Ramos
Substitutes
- 9 I. Pitta Saldívar
- 32 J. Herrera
- 17 V. Mendonça Pereira
- 6 G. Girotto Franco
- 19 Bruno
- 35 M. Fernandes Siqueira
- 23 A. Sant'Anna Quintero
- 15 I. Sosa Ospital
- 12 V. Barbosa da Silva
- 1 C. Schwengber
- 3 E. Mendes Santos
- 34 J. Hurtado Cheme
- 22 G. Ribeiro Neves
- 28 P. da Silva Campos
- 20 W. Gassova Ribeiro Teixeira
- 97 L. Rodríguez Rosales
- 6 M. Viña Susperreguy
- 15 F. Soares de Faria
- 25 L. Villalba
- 9 B. Rodrigues do Nascimento
- 70 K. Takamura Correa
- 2 K. Moraes Silva
- 7 M. de Souza
- 11 M. Oliveira Alencar
- 23 F. Conserva Lemos
- 16 L. Silva Borges
- 1 C. Ramos
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