Match report â
Palmeiras â Corinthians4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Palmeiras
1.62
Total xG
2.24
Corinthians
0.62
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Palmeiras | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | â0.69 | |
| Attack weakness (0.58x league average) | â0.60 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | â0.34 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.23 | |
| Declining form (1.3 vs 1.9 season average) | â0.18 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | â0.15 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | â0.12 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | â0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 16, 14 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 2, 14 places gap) | â0.10 | |
| Attack strength (1.31x league average) | â0.01 | |
| Marlon Freitas on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Rodrigo Garro not in squad (3 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Kaio CĂ©sar not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form gap and probability: The model calculates a 60% home win probability as Corinthians arrive on a 5-game losing streak
- Defensive solidness: Palmeiras concede an average of just 0.64 goals at home and have kept 13 clean sheets
- Offensive efficiency: Palmeiras averaged 7.2 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Tight schedule: Palmeiras have had only 2 days of rest since their last match
- Missing personnel: Rodrigo Garro and Kaio CĂ©sar are not included in the squad for the visitors
- Goal scoring dip: Palmeiras recently averaged 1.33 goals per match, below their season average of 1.92
All probabilities
Result
Palmeiras60%
Draw27%
Corinthians13%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Double chance
Palmeiras or draw87%
Corinthians or draw40%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes39%
No61%
Most likely scores
1:0
16%
2:0
14%
1:1
12%
0:0
12%
2:1
9%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Palmeiras: first goal in 7 of 9 games (78%)
- Corinthians: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Corinthians: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- Palmeiras: 4 of 9 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Palmeiras 3-4-2-1 · Corinthians 4-1-3-2
Palmeiras
- 1 C. dos Santos Pereira
- 26 M. Cerqueira Paim
- 15 G. GĂłmez Portillo
- 2 A. Barboza UllĂșa
- 4 A. Giay
- 8 A. Hoelgebaum Pereira
- 30 L. Evangelista Santana de Oliveira
- 22 J. Piquerez Moreira
- 42 J. LĂłpez
- 11 J. Arias Andrade
- 9 V. Roque Ferreira
Corinthians
- 1 H. de Souza Nogueira
- 2 M. França Silva
- 3 G. de Abreu
- 13 G. Vernes
- 21 M. Lima BeltrĂŁo Oliveira
- 14 R. Almeida Melo
- 7 B. de Souza Bidon
- 19 A. Carrillo DĂaz
- 49 A. Santos Dias
- 9 Y. Monteiro da Silva
- 10 M. Depay
Substitutes
- 19 R. Sosa
- 32 E. MartĂnez Toranza
- 50 L. Pacheco da Costa
- 56 A. Santana Marcolino
- 48 L. Torna Ferreira dos Santos
- 3 B. de Lara Fuchs
- 10 P. Sampaio Filho
- 14 M. do Nascimento
- 12 K. Silva Oliveira
- 17 M. Rodrigues Freitas
- 7 F. Anderson Pereira Gomes
- 18 M. MagalhĂŁes Prado
- 77 J. Lingard
- 51 K. de Souza Camargo
- 26 F. Angileri
- 29 A. Rodrigues de Souza
- 4 J. de Sousa Rodrigues
- 35 C. Rigon Matos
- 11 V. Coelho Santos
- 61 D. da Cruz Lopes
- 56 G. Silva InĂĄcio
- 18 P. Garay da Silva
- 5 A. Ramalho Silva
- 55 I. Machado
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account â