Match report â
Flamengo â Fluminense1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Flamengo
1.70
Total xG
2.52
Fluminense
0.82
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Flamengo | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | â0.67 | |
| Attack strength (1.28x league average) | +0.24 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.21 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.21 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | â0.05 | |
| Giorgian de Arrascaeta not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Jorginho not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Ayrton Lucas not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Hulk on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Guga on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| RenĂȘ not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mathematical model predicts a 57% win probability for Flamengo
- Flamengo averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches with 61% possession
- Fluminense concede an average of 1.83 goals per away game
Risks
- Fluminense with only 2 days of rest since their last match
- Fluminense missing J. Kennedy Batista de Souza who scored 9 goals this season
All probabilities
Result
Flamengo57%
Draw27%
Fluminense17%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Double chance
Flamengo or draw83%
Fluminense or draw43%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
12%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Flamengo: first goal in 11 of 12 games (92%)
- Flamengo: 5 of 8 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Samuel Lino: 4 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Fluminense: 43% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (9 of 21)
- Fluminense: 76% of all goals in the second half (16 of 21, last 12 games)
- Fluminense: 6 of 21 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Flamengo 4-2-3-1 · Fluminense 4-2-3-1
Flamengo
- 1 A. Rossi
- 2 G. Varela Olivera
- 3 L. Rech Ortiz
- 4 L. Pereira
- 26 A. Lobo Silva
- 5 E. Pulgar FarfĂĄn
- 8 S. ĂĂguez
- 15 J. Carrascal Guardo
- 11 L. Tolentino Coelho de Lima
- 16 S. Dias Lino
- 9 P. Abreu dos Santos
Fluminense
- 1 F. Lopes Maciel
- 2 S. Brito
- 4 I. da Silva Oliveira
- 29 J. MillĂĄn DĂaz
- 13 G. Arana Lopes
- 16 G. Santana
- 8 M. Martinelli
- 17 A. Canobbio Graviz
- 32 L. Acosta
- 30 Y. Soteldo MartĂnez
- 19 R. Castillo
Substitutes
- 42 A. da Silva Ventura
- 19 G. Plata Jiménez
- 18 D. De La Cruz Arcosa
- 13 D. da Silva
- 30 J. Freitas
- 44 V. da Silva Matos
- 22 E. Leite de Souza Junior
- 7 L. de Araujo GuimarĂŁes Neto
- 27 B. Pinto
- 49 F. Bento Alves
- 14 A. Valencia
- 77 J. Monteiro GĂłes
- 3 T. da Silva
- 90 K. Serna Jaramillo
- 11 J. Savarino Quintero
- 7 G. Vieira de Souza
- 35 H. Pereira do Nascimento
- 10 P. Chagas de Lima
- 22 J. Freytes
- 94 O. Passos Santos
- 23 C. Rodrigues Gomes
- 98 V. de Souza Costa
- 21 I. Rabello da Costa
- 34 W. de Freitas Prado
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