Match report →
São Paulo – Vitória2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
São Paulo
1.53
Total xG
2.18
Vitória
0.64
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | São Paulo | Vitória |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.53x league average) | −0.73 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.36 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.18 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Luciano not in squad (9 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Marcos Antônio on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Wendell on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Diego Tarzia not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mathematical prediction: Model calculates a 58% home win probability with 1.53 expected goals
- Severe away weakness: Vitória concede an average of 3.33 goals per away game
- Visiting offensive trend: Vitória averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches, scoring 1.8 goals per game
Risks
- São Paulo with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Missing from starting lineup: Luciano (9 goals), Marcos António, and Wendell
- Vitória have already conceded 30 goals in 9 away matches
All probabilities
Result
São Paulo57%
Draw28%
Vitória14%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Double chance
São Paulo or draw86%
Vitória or draw43%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes39%
No61%
Most likely scores
1:0
16%
2:0
13%
0:0
13%
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- São Paulo: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (11 points lost)
- São Paulo: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
São Paulo 3-4-2-1 · Vitória 4-1-4-1
São Paulo
- 23 R. Monteiro
- 28 N. Araújo da Costa Júnior
- 5 R. Arboleda Escobar
- 35 J. Chagas Monteiro
- 19 L. Batista Silva
- 16 D. Bobadilla
- 48 D. Ferreira
- 12 I. Amaral Borduchi
- 37 A. Guimarães
- 43 G. Domingos Santana
- 9 J. Calleri
Vitória
- 1 L. Assis Arcanjo
- 98 M. Silva Duarte
- 25 C. de Menezes Júnior
- 36 L. Candido de Almeida
- 83 J. Santos de Jesus
- 95 C. de Jesus Gonçalves
- 33 E. de Arruda Serafim
- 6 L. Martínez
- 10 M. Martins Fogaça de Paula
- 20 L. Rodrigues da Silva
- 91 C. de Sousa Ferreira
Substitutes
- 32 P. Cardoso de Lima
- 31 C. Coronel
- 2 R. Tolói
- 45 L. Marques Alencar
- 49 R. Rodrigues dos Santos Silva
- 7 L. Rodrigues Moura da Silva
- 17 A. Oliveira Silva
- 46 P. da Silva Ferreira
- 18 W. Nascimento Borges
- 29 P. Gonçalves Maia Fortunato
- 8 M. Silva Santos
- 27 J. Santos Sa
- 77 I. Laquintana Marsico
- 79 R. de Souza
- 23 F. do Rosário dos Santos
- 88 J. Silva Neves
- 28 A. Santos
- 7 M. Santos Costa
- 71 Y. Sena dos Reis Batista
- 15 W. Souza Silva
- 26 E. Santos Nascimento Filho
- 2 E. Brítez
- 8 T. Pochettino
- 9 Alex Bruno
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