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Serie A10/10/2026, 09:00 PM

Vasco da Gama – Remo0 : 0

Why the model thinks so

Vasco da Gama
2.43
Total xG
3.43
Remo
1.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorVasco da GamaRemo
Attack strength (1.73x league average)+1.39
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)+0.32
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.3 season average)+0.32
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)−0.05
Cuiabano on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Bruno Duarte not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Paulo Henrique on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
TchĂȘ TchĂȘ on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Leonel Picco on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 79% available)
Strong home record (2.2 vs 1.3 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Strong home offensive trend: Vasco da Gama averaged 2.4 goals per match recently and won 4 of their last 5 games
  • Away defensive vulnerability: Remo concede an average of 2.33 goals per away match
  • Clear model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a 68% home win probability

Risks

  • Tight schedule: Both teams play with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Home defensive concerns: Vasco da Gama concede an average of 1.50 goals per match overall
  • Low attacking output: Remo averaged only 4.8 shots on target in recent matches

All probabilities

Result
Vasco da Gama68%
Draw19%
Remo13%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.555%
Double chance
Vasco da Gama or draw87%
Remo or draw32%
No draw81%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%

Most likely scores

2:0
10%
2:1
10%
1:1
9%
3:0
8%
3:1
8%
0:0
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Vasco da Gama: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
  2. Remo: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 13 total)
  3. Remo: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
  4. Remo: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)
  5. Remo: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
  6. Vasco da Gama: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Lineups

Vasco da Gama 4-2-3-1 · Remo 5-4-1

Vasco da Gama
  • 1 L. Jardim
  • 2 J. RodrĂ­guez Bebanz
  • 4 A. Saldivia VĂĄzquez
  • 30 R. Alves Barbosa
  • 6 L. Piton Crivellaro
  • 8 J. Rodrigues JĂșnior
  • 23 T. Mendes Ribeiro
  • 11 A. Gomez
  • 22 A. Lescano
  • 9 F. Colidio
  • 7 D. Correia da Fonseca
Remo
  • 88 M. Rangel Rosa
  • 79 M. Rodrigues Souza
  • 13 M. Gonçalves JerĂŽnimo Borges
  • 28 J. da Silva
  • 27 J. Almeida Silva
  • 6 M. Lopes do Nascimento
  • 22 G. Souza Lisboa
  • 55 J. AraĂșjo Fernandes
  • 8 P. Bezerra do Nascimento
  • 19 G. Pereira Taliari
  • 39 Eduardo Queiroz
Substitutes
  • 66 L. Soares da Silva
  • 55 G. Pereira MagalhĂŁes dos Santos
  • 18 M. Hinestroza Angulo
  • 96 P. de Oliveira Alves
  • 5 S. Sosa
  • 43 L. de Freitas Molarinho Chagas
  • 77 C. Spinelli
  • 17 N. Rocha Moreira
  • 3 D. das Neves Pinheiro
  • 13 D. Cerantola Fuzato
  • 28 A. Ferreira Soares
  • 83 R. de Souza Barros
  • 2 M. AnastĂĄcio de Souza
  • 97 I. Quaresma da Silva
  • 7 J. Souza Silva
  • 15 V. Frezarin Bueno
  • 14 L. Picco
  • 9 G. Buscariol Poveda
  • 10 J. Flores dos Reis
  • 94 Y. Vinhas Oliveira Lima
  • 77 M. da Silva Ferreira
  • 26 D. Trindade Braga
  • 61 P. da Costa Evangelista Junior

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