Match report →
Corinthians – Vitória1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Corinthians
1.34
Total xG
2.28
Vitória
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Corinthians | Vitória |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.61x league average) | −0.63 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.19 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.19 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Matheus Bidu on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Kaio César on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Raniele not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 87% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Vitória concede 2.13 goals per game away in the league this season, Corinthians 1.07 at home
- Head-to-head: Corinthians won 3 of the 5 meetings against Vitória, with 0 wins for Vitória
Risks
- Form: Corinthians have 5 losses from their last 5 matches in the league
- Squad: Corinthians without R. Almeida Melo, in the starting XI in 4 of the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Corinthians44%
Draw31%
Vitória25%
Double chance
Corinthians or draw75%
Vitória or draw56%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.34 : 0.94, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
1:0
12%
0:0
12%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Corinthians: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)
Lineups
Corinthians 4-2-3-1 · Vitória 4-1-4-1
Corinthians
- 1 H. de Souza Nogueira
- 2 M. França Silva
- 3 G. de Abreu
- 13 G. Vernes
- 26 F. Angileri
- 49 A. Santos Dias
- 7 B. de Souza Bidon
- 11 V. Coelho Santos
- 8 R. Garro
- 77 J. Lingard
- 9 Y. Monteiro da Silva
Vitória
- 1 L. Assis Arcanjo
- 98 M. Silva Duarte
- 2 E. Brítez
- 36 L. Candido de Almeida
- 83 J. Santos de Jesus
- 6 L. Martínez
- 33 E. de Arruda Serafim
- 10 M. Martins Fogaça de Paula
- 95 C. de Jesus Gonçalves
- 12 D. Tarzia
- 91 C. de Sousa Ferreira
Substitutes
- 37 K. Andrade Lima
- 19 A. Carrillo Díaz
- 51 K. de Souza Camargo
- 20 P. Milans Carámbula
- 29 A. Rodrigues de Souza
- 4 J. de Sousa Rodrigues
- 35 C. Rigon Matos
- 61 D. da Cruz Lopes
- 56 G. Silva Inácio
- 18 P. Garay da Silva
- 21 M. Lima Beltrão Oliveira
- 5 A. Ramalho Silva
- 77 I. Laquintana Marsico
- 79 R. de Souza
- 23 F. do Rosário dos Santos
- 20 L. Rodrigues da Silva
- 88 J. Silva Neves
- 7 M. Santos Costa
- 16 R. Valente Ramos
- 71 Y. Sena dos Reis Batista
- 15 W. Souza Silva
- 26 E. Santos Nascimento Filho
- 8 T. Pochettino
- 9 Alex Bruno
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