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São Paulo – Vasco da Gama1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
São Paulo
1.45
Total xG
2.87
Vasco da Gama
1.42
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | São Paulo | Vasco da Gama |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.43 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.37 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.28 | |
| Attack strength (1.2x league average) | −0.22 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Thiago Mendes on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Model: Balanced expectation with 1.45 expected goals for São Paulo and 1.42 for Vasco da Gama
- Home/Away: São Paulo score 1.6 goals per game at home in the league, Vasco da Gama score 1.07 per game away
- Table: São Paulo are on 39 points from 30 league games, Vasco da Gama on 35 points from 29 games
Risks
- Form: Vasco da Gama won 3 of their last 5 games, while São Paulo suffered 3 defeats in their last 5 games
- Tactics: Vasco da Gama averaged 6.6 shots on target in recent games, São Paulo 4 shots on target per game
All probabilities
Result
São Paulo37%
Draw28%
Vasco da Gama35%
Double chance
São Paulo or draw65%
Vasco da Gama or draw63%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- São Paulo with Luciano starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (21/7 games, last 30)
- Vasco da Gama: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- São Paulo: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
São Paulo 3-4-2-1 · Vasco da Gama 4-2-3-1
São Paulo
- 23 R. Monteiro
- 28 N. Araújo da Costa Júnior
- 5 R. Arboleda Escobar
- 2 R. Tolói
- 32 P. Cardoso de Lima
- 8 M. Silva Santos
- 16 D. Bobadilla
- 12 I. Amaral Borduchi
- 10 L. da Rocha Neves
- 37 A. Guimarães
- 9 J. Calleri
Vasco da Gama
- 1 L. Jardim
- 96 P. de Oliveira Alves
- 55 G. Pereira Magalhães dos Santos
- 30 R. Alves Barbosa
- 66 L. Soares da Silva
- 3 D. das Neves Pinheiro
- 5 S. Sosa
- 11 A. Gomez
- 22 A. Lescano
- 9 F. Colidio
- 19 B. Duarte da Silva
Substitutes
- 31 C. Coronel
- 19 L. Batista Silva
- 45 L. Marques Alencar
- 49 R. Rodrigues dos Santos Silva
- 7 L. Rodrigues Moura da Silva
- 46 P. da Silva Ferreira
- 18 W. Nascimento Borges
- 35 J. Chagas Monteiro
- 29 P. Gonçalves Maia Fortunato
- 54 L. Osorio Messias de Oliveira
- 43 G. Domingos Santana
- 27 J. Santos Sa
- 20 B. Souza da Silva
- 2 J. Rodríguez Bebanz
- 43 L. de Freitas Molarinho Chagas
- 4 A. Saldivia Vázquez
- 7 D. Correia da Fonseca
- 23 T. Mendes Ribeiro
- 17 N. Rocha Moreira
- 8 J. Rodrigues Júnior
- 6 L. Piton Crivellaro
- 13 D. Cerantola Fuzato
- 28 A. Ferreira Soares
- 83 R. de Souza Barros
- 45 L. António Augusto
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