Match report →
Botafogo – Chapecoense1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Botafogo
1.82
Total xG
2.87
Chapecoense
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Botafogo | Chapecoense |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +1.05 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 13, 7 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 13 vs 20, 7 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Arthur Cabral on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Cristian Medina on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 19% of goal output missing (only 86% available) | ||
| Marcinho not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 33% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Botafogo average 1.67 goals per game at home in the league this season, Chapecoense concede 1.87 per game away
- Defence: Chapecoense conceded 2.4 goals per game in their last 5 league matches
- Table: Botafogo are 13th in the league with 36 points, while Chapecoense are 20th with 18 points
Risks
- Form: Botafogo won 1 of their last 5 matches in the league
- Personnel: Botafogo without L. Monzón, who started in 3 of the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Botafogo54%
Draw26%
Chapecoense20%
Double chance
Botafogo or draw80%
Chapecoense or draw46%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
6%
3:0
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Chapecoense: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Chapecoense: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Botafogo: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Chapecoense: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
Lineups
Botafogo 4-2-3-1 · Chapecoense 4-4-2
Botafogo
- 12 G. Batista de Souza
- 2 V. da Silva
- 5 N. Ferraresi Hernández
- 21 F. Marçal de Oliveira
- 13 A. Telles
- 25 A. Marques Loureiro
- 8 D. dos Santos de Oliveira
- 22 H. Ziyech
- 10 ?. Montoro
- 11 M. Martins Silva dos Santos
- 9 F. das Chagas Soares dos Santos
Chapecoense
- 98 A. Silva Da Paixao
- 20 B. Nunes de Barros
- 21 K. Faria Gomes
- 3 E. Domachowski
- 91 B. de Jesus Pacheco
- 31 M. Garcez
- 88 Y. da Costa Rocha
- 27 C. Reijers de Olivera
- 12 Fernando
- 10 G. Oliveira Cardoso
- 9 T. Silva de Oliveira
Substitutes
- 90 D. Pereira da Silva
- 29 P. da Silva
- 37 K. Barria
- 19 A. Mendonça Cabral
- 6 C. Medina
- 7 J. dos Santos Junior
- 4 M. Ponte Costa
- 77 L. Villalba Jaume
- 59 K. Almeida Toledo
- 33 E. Justino
- 75 V. de Melo Moura
- 17 W. Stellion Lisboa Oliveira
- 91 D. Andrade
- 80 M. Carvallho Vianna
- 23 L. Marques dos Santos
- 4 J. Silveira dos Santos
- 15 R. de Albuquerque Marques
- 11 Y. Bolasie Yala
- 16 B. dos Santos
- 30 M. Aurelio Palhares Guimaraes
- 29 F. Rossi Donazar
- 22 M. Alves da Silva
- 39 R. Azevedo Tiago
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