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Bahia – Flamengo0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Bahia
1.37
Total xG
2.94
Flamengo
1.57
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bahia | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.44x league average) | +0.52 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Lucas Paquetá on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Giorgian de Arrascaeta not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Ayrton Lucas not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 1.9 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Flamengo with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 matches, Bahia with 3 wins and 2 losses
- Attack: Flamengo averages 1.93 goals per match away in the league this season, Bahia 1.53 at home
- Head-to-head: Flamengo won 4 of the 5 meetings, Bahia 1
Risks
- Defense: Bahia conceded 0.93 goals per match at home in the league this season across 15 matches
- Squad: Flamengo without A. Dantas de Medeiros, who started in 3 of the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Bahia32%
Draw27%
Flamengo41%
Double chance
Bahia or draw59%
Flamengo or draw68%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Flamengo: first goal in 11 of 12 games (92%)
- Flamengo: 6 of 9 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Samuel Lino: 4 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Bahia: 41% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 17)
- Flamengo with Gonzalo Plata starting: 2.5 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (10/12 games, last 30)
- Bahia: 65% of all goals in the first half (11 of 17, last 12 games)
Lineups
Bahia 5-3-2 · Flamengo 4-2-3-1
Bahia
- 1 R. de Oliveira Strada
- 99 C. Olivera Ibarra
- 44 M. Ferreira da Silva
- 33 D. de Duarte Macedo
- 3 M. Ojeda
- 46 Luciano
- 6 J. de Souza Oliveira
- 5 N. Acevedo Tabárez
- 11 R. Bertalia
- 16 E. da Costa Farias
- 9 A. Véliz
Flamengo
- 1 A. Rossi
- 2 G. Varela Olivera
- 3 L. Rech Ortiz
- 4 L. Pereira
- 22 E. Leite de Souza Junior
- 21 J. Frello Filho
- 5 E. Pulgar Farfán
- 19 G. Plata Jiménez
- 15 J. Carrascal Guardo
- 16 S. Dias Lino
- 9 P. Abreu dos Santos
Substitutes
- 17 G. Herrera
- 31 R. Gómez
- 23 M. Sanabria
- 27 E. Stum
- 7 A. da Silva Santos Junior
- 12 W. da Silva
- 14 E. Conrado Carvalho
- 66 J. de Lima Costa
- 15 M. Araújo Villar
- 10 É. de Barros Ribeiro
- 4 V. Soares dos Santos
- 8 C. Souza e Silva
- 11 L. Tolentino Coelho de Lima
- 42 A. da Silva Ventura
- 18 D. De La Cruz Arcosa
- 26 A. Lobo Silva
- 30 J. Freitas
- 61 J. de Souza Cunha
- 44 V. da Silva Matos
- 7 L. de Araujo Guimarães Neto
- 27 B. Pinto
- 49 F. Bento Alves
- 14 A. Valencia
- 77 J. Monteiro Góes
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