Match report →
Remo – Bragantino1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Remo
1.15
Total xG
2.55
Bragantino
1.40
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Remo | Bragantino |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.18 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 10, 9 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 19, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Yago Pikachu on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Leonel Picco on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 30% of goal output missing (only 65% available) | ||
| Agustín Sant'Anna on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Table: Bragantino ranks 10th in the league with 40 points, Remo is 19th with 25 points
- Form: Remo is winless in the last 5 matches with 2 draws and 3 losses, Bragantino registered 1 win and 2 draws
- Shots: Bragantino averaged 8 shots on target per match in recent games, Remo 4 per match
Risks
- Away: Bragantino scored 0.93 goals per away game in the league this season, Remo 1.27 goals per home game
All probabilities
Result
Remo29%
Draw30%
Bragantino41%
Double chance
Remo or draw59%
Bragantino or draw71%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:0
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Bragantino: dropped a lead in 5 of 7 games (11 points lost)
- Remo: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
Lineups
Remo 5-4-1 · Bragantino 4-2-3-1
Remo
- 97 I. Quaresma da Silva
- 79 M. Rodrigues Souza
- 13 M. Gonçalves Jerônimo Borges
- 28 J. da Silva
- 27 J. Almeida Silva
- 6 M. Lopes do Nascimento
- 26 D. Trindade Braga
- 55 J. Araújo Fernandes
- 8 P. Bezerra do Nascimento
- 21 A. Galeano Ferreira
- 19 G. Pereira Taliari
Bragantino
- 18 T. Volpi
- 52 R. da Silva
- 16 G. Marques Alves
- 2 G. Rodríguez Ferrari
- 29 L. da Rocha Junior
- 5 F. Silva de Freitas
- 7 E. Dos Santos Rodrigues
- 21 L. Barbosa
- 47 W. de Souza Barreto
- 11 F. Dos Santos Pedro
- 8 E. Colcenti Antunes
Substitutes
- 2 M. Anastácio de Souza
- 22 G. Souza Lisboa
- 5 L. de Andrade Silva
- 7 J. Souza Silva
- 15 V. Frezarin Bueno
- 14 L. Picco
- 9 G. Buscariol Poveda
- 39 Eduardo Queiroz
- 94 Y. Vinhas Oliveira Lima
- 61 P. da Costa Evangelista Junior
- 35 E. da Silva Gomes
- 20 Andrés Dionicio Moreno González
- 9 I. Pitta Saldívar
- 32 J. Herrera
- 17 V. Mendonça Pereira
- 6 G. Girotto Franco
- 35 M. Fernandes Siqueira
- 23 A. Sant'Anna Quintero
- 15 I. Sosa Ospital
- 12 V. Barbosa da Silva
- 1 C. Schwengber
- 4 A. de Souza Sampaio
- 3 E. Mendes Santos
- 28 P. da Silva Campos
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