Match report →
Grêmio – Cruzeiro2 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Grêmio
1.18
Total xG
2.71
Cruzeiro
1.53
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Grêmio | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.32x league average) | +1.03 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.40 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.18 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 7, 11 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 18, 11 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | +0.06 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.01 | |
| Wallace not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Erick Noriega on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Fagner on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) |
Key factors
- Form: Cruzeiro won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Grêmio failed to win in their last 5 matches
- Standings: Cruzeiro ranks 7th in the league with 48 points, while Grêmio ranks 18th with 31 points
- Head-to-head: Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Grêmio, with 1 draw
Risks
- Home/Away: Grêmio scored 1.53 goals per game at home in the league, while Cruzeiro conceded 1.87 away
- Defense: Grêmio conceded 1.13 goals per game at home in the league, while Cruzeiro conceded 1.87 away
All probabilities
Result
Grêmio28%
Draw28%
Cruzeiro44%
Double chance
Grêmio or draw56%
Cruzeiro or draw72%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
2:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Grêmio: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Cruzeiro: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (8 of 22 total)
- Cruzeiro: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Grêmio: 3.2 cards per game (39 yellows, 0 reds in 12 games)
- Cruzeiro: 7 of 22 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Cruzeiro: 73% of all goals in the second half (16 of 22, last 12 games)
Lineups
Grêmio 4-2-3-1 · Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
Grêmio
- 1 W. Pereira da Silva
- 27 D. Caito Barcellos Oliveira dos Santos
- 6 G. Martins de Souza Santos
- 4 W. Kannemann
- 23 M. Rodrigues Xavier
- 20 M. Villasanti Rolón
- 15 D. Barbosa da Silva
- 7 C. Pavón
- 10 F. Krovinović
- 9 F. Amuzu
- 95 C. Alves Morais
Cruzeiro
- 81 O. Rezende Costa
- 12 W. de Asevedo Furtado
- 43 J. Messias Ferreira
- 34 J. de Jesus Alves
- 25 L. Villalba
- 5 J. Gomes da Silva
- 29 L. Romero
- 99 K. Arroyo Alvarado
- 10 M. Costa Pereira
- 8 G. Santos da Silva
- 19 K. Pinto Ramos
Substitutes
- 11 Tetê
- 2 F. Balbuena González
- 8 E. Noriega
- 99 J. Enamorado Gómez
- 22 M. Braithwait
- 12 G. Hamester Grando
- 3 W. Calvelo de Souza
- 38 C. de Oliveira
- 14 M. Rocha Aquino
- 18 J. Maturano dos Santos
- 17 D. Moreira Fagundes
- 54 P. Crisostomo Pinheiro
- 20 W. Gassova Ribeiro Teixeira
- 97 L. Rodríguez Rosales
- 6 M. Viña Susperreguy
- 15 F. Soares de Faria
- 27 G. Rojas
- 9 B. Rodrigues do Nascimento
- 2 K. Moraes Silva
- 7 M. de Souza
- 11 M. Oliveira Alencar
- 23 F. Conserva Lemos
- 16 L. Silva Borges
- 1 C. Ramos
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