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Atlético Mineiro – Coritiba1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Atlético Mineiro
1.93
Total xG
2.73
Coritiba
0.79
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético Mineiro | Coritiba |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.53 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.09 | |
| Bernard on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Tomás Cuello on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Reinier on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Maycon on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 45% of goal output missing (only 57% available) | ||
| Breno Lopes on the bench (8 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Atlético Mineiro scores 1.73 goals per game at home in the league, Coritiba concedes 1.87 per game away
- Form: Atlético Mineiro is unbeaten in its last 5 games (3 wins, 2 draws), Coritiba won none (2 draws, 3 losses)
- Shots on target: Atlético Mineiro averaged 7 shots on target per game in its last 5 games, Coritiba 3.4 per game
Risks
- Squad: Atlético Mineiro without F. Rodrigues Santos, in the starting XI in 4 of the last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Atlético Mineiro63%
Draw24%
Coritiba13%
Double chance
Atlético Mineiro or draw87%
Coritiba or draw37%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
2:0
12%
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Coritiba: 5 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Tomás Cuello: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Atlético Mineiro: 32% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 19)
Lineups
Atlético Mineiro 4-2-3-1 · Coritiba 4-2-3-1
Atlético Mineiro
- 1 G. Delfim Ferreira
- 2 Natanael
- 3 L. Duarte da Silva
- 14 V. Franchescoli de Souza
- 36 K. Resende
- 25 T. Pérez
- 5 A. Gomes da Costa
- 27 A. Minda García
- 39 M. Cissé
- 17 I. Silveira Gomes
- 18 T. Borbas
Coritiba
- 1 P. Luccas Morisco da Silva
- 14 F. Bustos
- 23 T. Coiser
- 55 J. Maranhão Oliveira
- 26 B. Ferreira Melo
- 21 T. dos Santos
- 19 S. Gómez Londoño
- 32 P. Rocha Neves
- 10 J. Soares Pesqueira
- 7 J. Lavega Colzada
- 18 P. da Silva Souza
Substitutes
- 8 M. de Andrade Barberan
- 23 A. Preciado Quiñónez
- 15 K. Castaño Gil
- 28 T. Cuello
- 30 V. Gomes Silva
- 13 L. Silveira Neves Vojnović
- 92 E. Pereira Rodrigues
- 6 R. Lodi dos Santos
- 40 V. Fernandes Chaves Teixeira
- 19 R. Carvalho
- 11 B. Anício Caldeira Duarte
- 31 R. Pinto Alves Assunção
- 5 N. Fonseca
- 17 B. Ocampo Ferreira
- 78 R. de Oliveira Junior
- 6 F. Rocha Andrade
- 36 V. dos Santos
- 77 B. Vasconcelos Lopes
- 2 G. de Jesus da Silva
- 13 K. da Silva Nunes
- 3 M. Pereira Roque
- 4 R. da Silva Moledo
- 99 R. Rodrigues Silva
- 50 V. Gonçalves Tissi
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