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Mirassol – Internacional2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Mirassol
1.60
Total xG
2.65
Internacional
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Mirassol | Internacional |
|---|---|---|
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Alesson on the bench (0 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Johan Carbonero on the bench (7 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Alan Patrick not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 32% of goal output missing (only 80% available) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Mirassol scores 1.4 goals per game at home in the league this season, Internacional 1.0 per game away
- Head-to-head: Mirassol won 2 of the 3 head-to-head meetings, Internacional 0
- Shots on target: Mirassol averages 4.8 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, Internacional 3.8 per game
Risks
- xG: Mirassol allowed 2.00 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but conceded 1.0 goals per game
- Table: Mirassol is 15th in the league with 33 points, Internacional is 17th with 32 points
All probabilities
Result
Mirassol49%
Draw28%
Internacional23%
Double chance
Mirassol or draw77%
Internacional or draw51%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Internacional: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (9 points lost)
- Internacional: 3 cards per game (31 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)
- Internacional with Alerrandro starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (13/7 games, last 30)
Lineups
Mirassol 4-2-3-1 · Internacional 3-4-2-1
Mirassol
- 22 W. Capeloza Artune
- 32 I. Marques Paciencia Cardoso
- 34 J. Carroll Santana
- 3 W. Estefani Machado
- 6 R. da Silva
- 25 A. Moura Neto
- 27 Denilson
- 7 S. Cardozo
- 33 C. de Oliveira Alves
- 95 E. Mendes dos Santos
- 30 B. Santos de Oliveira
Internacional
- 23 M. Cunha Queiroz
- 15 B. Gomes da Silva Clevelário
- 25 G. Mercado
- 18 J. Ferreira Junior
- 35 B. Aguirre
- 5 R. Villagra
- 29 T. Maia Alencar
- 6 Matheus Bahia
- 28 V. Naum dos Santos
- 26 Alexandro Bernabei
- 9 A. Barra Mansa Realino de Souza
Substitutes
- 20 D. Fortunato Borges
- 77 A. dos Santos Batista
- 96 C. Ferreira de Souza
- 90 C. Lecciolle Thomazella
- 9 A. Silva de Aguiar
- 2 L. da Cruz Oliveira
- 10 F. Hyun Sol Kim
- 5 J. de Oliveira
- 80 W. Alves Maximo
- 17 F. Marques Maciel
- 44 G. Knesowitsch
- 99 J. Assunção de Araujo Filho
- 30 C. Goncalves Ferreira da Silva
- 17 N. Eliasson
- 4 F. Torres Caicedo
- 7 J. Carbonero Balanta
- 41 V. da Conceição Ribeiro
- 27 P. Lucas de Paula
- 16 R. da Silva Souza
- 8 B. Corsini
- 22 K. Jesus Santos Oliveira
- 12 A. Spier Souza
- 44 J. Alves de Morais Francisco
- 49 João Bezerra
- 53 L. de Morais Francisco
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