Match report →
Fluminense – Santos1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Fluminense
1.55
Total xG
2.70
Santos
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Fluminense | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Hulk on the bench (6 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Martinelli on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Guilherme Arana not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Christian Oliva on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Gonzalo Escobar on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Fluminense averages 1.87 goals scored per game at home in the league this season, Santos concedes 1.67 away
- Standings: Fluminense ranks 4th in the league with 51 points, Santos ranks 9th with 42 points
- Head-to-Head: Fluminense won 2 of the 3 meetings since April 2025, Santos none
Risks
- Away: Santos averages 1.6 goals scored per game away in the league this season
- Squad: Fluminense without M. Martinelli, who started in 4 of the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Fluminense45%
Draw28%
Santos27%
Double chance
Fluminense or draw73%
Santos or draw55%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Fluminense: 80% of all goals in the second half (16 of 20, last 12 games)
- Fluminense: 45% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (9 of 20)
- Santos: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Santos: 40% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 20)
- Santos: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Santos: 3.1 cards per game (37 yellows, 0 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Fluminense 4-2-3-1 · Santos 4-2-3-1
Fluminense
- 1 F. Lopes Maciel
- 2 S. Brito
- 4 I. da Silva Oliveira
- 21 I. Rabello da Costa
- 6 R. Rodrigues Martins
- 35 H. Pereira do Nascimento
- 16 G. Santana
- 17 A. Canobbio Graviz
- 32 L. Acosta
- 30 Y. Soteldo Martínez
- 19 R. Castillo
Santos
- 1 D. da Silva
- 23 R. de Almeida
- 4 L. Verissimo da Silva
- 14 L. Peres Petroni
- 22 Á. Barreal
- 8 G. Silva Bontempo
- 48 G. Henrique Pereira
- 11 P. Coutinho Correia
- 10 Neymar
- 7 E. Sousa Soares
- 9 G. Barbosa Almeida
Substitutes
- 3 T. da Silva
- 90 K. Serna Jaramillo
- 11 J. Savarino Quintero
- 7 G. Vieira de Souza
- 10 P. Chagas de Lima
- 8 M. Martinelli
- 22 J. Freytes
- 29 J. Millán Díaz
- 27 M. de Araújo Pitaluga Filho
- 94 O. Passos Santos
- 23 C. Rodrigues Gomes
- 34 W. de Freitas Prado
- 41 R. Sales
- 30 M. Terceros
- 34 J. Silva Martins
- 26 J. Ananias Bento
- 31 G. Escobar
- 33 R. da Silva Barbosa
- 25 G. Menino
- 16 T. da Silva
- 28 C. Oliva Giménez
- 18 I. de Souza
- 32 B. Rollheiser
- 5 J. Schmidt Urbano
- 38 R. de Andrade Gonzaga
- 42 J. Santos Paes da Costa
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