Match report →
Athletico PR – Palmeiras0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Athletico PR
1.19
Total xG
2.60
Palmeiras
1.41
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Athletico PR | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.28 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Lucas Esquivel on the bench (2 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Jhon Arias on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Vitor Roque not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Gustavo Gómez not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Marlon Freitas on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Agustín Giay not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 94% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Defense: Palmeiras unbeaten in their last 5 matches with 0.2 goals conceded per match, Athletico PR conceded 2.0 per match
- Standings: Palmeiras is 2nd in the league with 63 points, Athletico PR is 3rd with 53 points
- xG: Palmeiras averaged 2.24 xG per match in their last 5 matches, scoring 1.4 goals per match
Risks
- Squad: G. Gómez Portillo, A. Giay and V. Roque Ferreira are absent (11 of 50 league goals for Palmeiras players, 22%)
- Home: Athletico PR scored 1.8 goals per match at home in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Athletico PR30%
Draw29%
Palmeiras41%
Double chance
Athletico PR or draw59%
Palmeiras or draw70%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
7%
2:1
7%
2:0
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Palmeiras: 5 of 9 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Palmeiras: first goal in 7 of 9 games (78%)
- Athletico PR: 7 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Athletico PR: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Athletico PR with Luiz Gustavo starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (23/6 games, last 30)
- Athletico PR: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Athletico PR 3-4-2-1 · Palmeiras 3-4-2-1
Athletico PR
- 1 M. Pontes Moreira
- 4 A. dos Santos Barbosa Dias
- 33 J. Aguirre Tabares
- 14 L. Dias
- 12 G. Moraes Junior
- 16 J. Alves dos Santos
- 5 A. Costa
- 7 J. Mendoza Valencia
- 21 L. Caetano Silva
- 8 J. Machado Cruz
- 9 K. Viveros Rodallega
Palmeiras
- 1 C. dos Santos Pereira
- 3 B. de Lara Fuchs
- 26 M. Cerqueira Paim
- 2 A. Barboza Ullúa
- 12 K. Silva Oliveira
- 30 L. Evangelista Santana de Oliveira
- 8 A. Hoelgebaum Pereira
- 22 J. Piquerez Moreira
- 42 J. López
- 18 M. Magalhães Prado
- 19 R. Sosa
Substitutes
- 27 J. Portilla Orozco
- 37 L. Esquivel
- 10 B. Zapelli
- 53 E. Kogitzki Anastacio
- 70 R. Peixoto Nepomuceno
- 23 A. Melo dos Santos Neto
- 3 L. Pinheiro da Conceição
- 63 D. Rivas do Nascimento
- 47 F. Chiqueti Bandeira
- 26 C. de Jesus Passos
- 19 J. Rivaldo Pinto
- 55 B. Gonçalves Baldini
- 11 J. Arias Andrade
- 32 E. Martínez Toranza
- 50 L. Pacheco da Costa
- 56 A. Santana Marcolino
- 48 L. Torna Ferreira dos Santos
- 45 E. Machado Belé
- 10 P. Sampaio Filho
- 14 M. do Nascimento
- 17 M. Rodrigues Freitas
- 43 L. Roncholeta Benedetti
- 7 F. Anderson Pereira Gomes
- 39 H. da Silva Nunes
- 21 B. Oliveira Bertinato
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →