Match report →
Coritiba – Grêmio0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Coritiba
1.20
Total xG
2.53
Grêmio
1.33
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Coritiba | Grêmio |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −0.59 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 12, 6 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 12 vs 18, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Coritiba is winless in its last 5 matches, with 2 draws and 3 losses
- Shots on target: Grêmio averaged 4.2 shots on target per game in recent matches, Coritiba 2.8 per game
Risks
- Table: Coritiba is 12th in the league this season with 39 points from 31 matches, Grêmio is 18th with 31 points
- Away: Grêmio scored 0.6 goals per game away in the league this season across 15 matches
All probabilities
Result
Coritiba32%
Draw30%
Grêmio38%
Double chance
Coritiba or draw62%
Grêmio or draw68%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.20 : 1.33, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Grêmio: 3.2 cards per game (38 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- Grêmio: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Grêmio: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)
- Coritiba: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Coritiba: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Coritiba 4-2-3-1 · Grêmio 3-4-3
Coritiba
- 1 P. Luccas Morisco da Silva
- 2 G. de Jesus da Silva
- 23 T. Coiser
- 55 J. Maranhão Oliveira
- 26 B. Ferreira Melo
- 5 N. Fonseca
- 19 S. Gómez Londoño
- 7 J. Lavega Colzada
- 10 J. Soares Pesqueira
- 32 P. Rocha Neves
- 18 P. da Silva Souza
Grêmio
- 1 W. Pereira da Silva
- 6 G. Martins de Souza Santos
- 2 F. Balbuena González
- 82 W. Gomes da Silva Santos
- 27 D. Caito Barcellos Oliveira dos Santos
- 8 E. Noriega
- 20 M. Villasanti Rolón
- 23 M. Rodrigues Xavier
- 7 C. Pavón
- 95 C. Alves Morais
- 9 F. Amuzu
Substitutes
- 17 B. Ocampo Ferreira
- 14 F. Bustos
- 25 R. Cândido Coelho
- 6 F. Rocha Andrade
- 36 V. dos Santos
- 77 B. Vasconcelos Lopes
- 28 F. da Silva
- 13 K. da Silva Nunes
- 3 M. Pereira Roque
- 4 R. da Silva Moledo
- 99 R. Rodrigues Silva
- 50 V. Gonçalves Tissi
- 11 Tetê
- 10 F. Krovinović
- 30 M. Nascimento de Paula
- 99 J. Enamorado Gómez
- 22 M. Braithwait
- 12 G. Hamester Grando
- 3 W. Calvelo de Souza
- 38 C. de Oliveira
- 14 M. Rocha Aquino
- 18 J. Maturano dos Santos
- 17 D. Moreira Fagundes
- 50 B. Schons Zortea
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