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Cruzeiro – Remo1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Cruzeiro
1.92
Total xG
2.89
Remo
0.97
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cruzeiro | Remo |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.24x league average) | +0.38 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.22 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.22 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 4, 15 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 19, 15 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| João Marcelo not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Gabriel Taliari not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Yago Pikachu not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Leonel Picco on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Standings: Cruzeiro sit 4th in the league with 51 points, while Remo are 19th with 26 points
- Home/Away: Cruzeiro score 1.73 goals per game at home in the league, while Remo concede 1.87 away
- Form: Cruzeiro have 3 wins from their last 5 matches, while Remo are winless in their last 5
Risks
- Defense: Cruzeiro conceded 1.8 goals per game in their last 5 matches
- Form: Remo have drawn 3 of their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Cruzeiro58%
Draw25%
Remo17%
Double chance
Cruzeiro or draw83%
Remo or draw42%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.92 : 0.97, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cruzeiro: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (9 of 24 total)
- Cruzeiro: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Remo: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Cruzeiro: 75% of all goals in the second half (18 of 24, last 12 games)
- Remo: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- Cruzeiro: 7 of 24 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1 · Remo 4-2-3-1
Cruzeiro
- 81 O. Rezende Costa
- 12 W. de Asevedo Furtado
- 15 F. Soares de Faria
- 34 J. de Jesus Alves
- 25 L. Villalba
- 5 J. Gomes da Silva
- 29 L. Romero
- 99 K. Arroyo Alvarado
- 10 M. Costa Pereira
- 8 G. Santos da Silva
- 19 K. Pinto Ramos
Remo
- 88 M. Rangel Rosa
- 79 M. Rodrigues Souza
- 13 M. Gonçalves Jerônimo Borges
- 27 J. Almeida Silva
- 6 M. Lopes do Nascimento
- 28 J. da Silva
- 8 P. Bezerra do Nascimento
- 21 A. Galeano Ferreira
- 55 J. Araújo Fernandes
- 7 J. Souza Silva
- 39 Eduardo Queiroz
Substitutes
- 20 W. Gassova Ribeiro Teixeira
- 97 L. Rodríguez Rosales
- 67 J. e Costa Cesco
- 6 M. Viña Susperreguy
- 27 G. Rojas
- 9 B. Rodrigues do Nascimento
- 7 M. de Souza
- 22 N. Villareal
- 11 M. Oliveira Alencar
- 23 F. Conserva Lemos
- 16 L. Silva Borges
- 1 C. Ramos
- 18 D. Tchamba Bangou
- 2 M. Anastácio de Souza
- 5 L. de Andrade Silva
- 97 I. Quaresma da Silva
- 15 V. Frezarin Bueno
- 14 L. Picco
- 94 Y. Vinhas Oliveira Lima
- 26 D. Trindade Braga
- 61 P. da Costa Evangelista Junior
- 35 E. da Silva Gomes
- 20 Andrés Dionicio Moreno González
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