Match report →
Mirassol – São Paulo1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Mirassol
1.65
Total xG
2.85
São Paulo
1.20
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Mirassol | São Paulo |
|---|---|---|
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Jonathan Calleri not in squad (10 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Artur not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 36% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Mirassol scores 1.44 goals per game at home this season, while São Paulo concedes 1.47 per game away
- Head-to-head: Mirassol won 2 of the 3 previous meetings against São Paulo
Risks
- Table: São Paulo is 9th in the league with 42 points, while Mirassol is 14th with 36 points
- Form: São Paulo won 3 of its last 5 games, while Mirassol recorded 2 wins
All probabilities
Result
Mirassol46%
Draw27%
São Paulo26%
Double chance
Mirassol or draw74%
São Paulo or draw54%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.65 : 1.20, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- São Paulo with Luciano starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (21/7 games, last 30)
- Mirassol: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
- São Paulo: 42% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 12)
- São Paulo: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Mirassol 4-2-3-1 · São Paulo 3-4-2-1
Mirassol
- 22 W. Capeloza Artune
- 32 I. Marques Paciencia Cardoso
- 34 J. Carroll Santana
- 3 W. Estefani Machado
- 6 R. da Silva
- 25 A. Moura Neto
- 27 Denilson
- 95 E. Mendes dos Santos
- 33 C. de Oliveira Alves
- 77 A. dos Santos Batista
- 30 B. Santos de Oliveira
São Paulo
- 23 R. Monteiro
- 28 N. Araújo da Costa Júnior
- 5 R. Arboleda Escobar
- 54 L. Osorio Messias de Oliveira
- 32 P. Cardoso de Lima
- 48 D. Ferreira
- 8 M. Silva Santos
- 12 I. Amaral Borduchi
- 16 D. Bobadilla
- 7 L. Rodrigues Moura da Silva
- 10 L. da Rocha Neves
Substitutes
- 7 S. Cardozo
- 20 D. Fortunato Borges
- 96 C. Ferreira de Souza
- 90 C. Lecciolle Thomazella
- 2 L. da Cruz Oliveira
- 10 F. Hyun Sol Kim
- 5 J. de Oliveira
- 80 W. Alves Maximo
- 17 F. Marques Maciel
- 44 G. Knesowitsch
- 19 G. Henric da Silva
- 99 J. Assunção de Araujo Filho
- 31 C. Coronel
- 2 R. Tolói
- 19 L. Batista Silva
- 45 L. Marques Alencar
- 49 R. Rodrigues dos Santos Silva
- 17 A. Oliveira Silva
- 46 P. da Silva Ferreira
- 18 W. Nascimento Borges
- 35 J. Chagas Monteiro
- 29 P. Gonçalves Maia Fortunato
- 43 G. Domingos Santana
- 27 J. Santos Sa
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