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Palmeiras – Bragantino2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Palmeiras
1.78
Total xG
2.78
Bragantino
1.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Palmeiras | Bragantino |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.71 | |
| Attack strength (1.3x league average) | +0.56 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Andreas Pereira not in squad (1 goals, 11 assists) | ||
| Vitor Roque not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Joaquín Piquerez not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Murilo on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Wallace Yan on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Eric Ramires not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Eduardo Sasha on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Form: Palmeiras with 4 wins from their last 5 matches, Bragantino with 1 win
- Home/Away: Palmeiras score 1.87 goals per match at home in the league this season, Bragantino 0.94 away
- Standings: Palmeiras are 2nd with 66 points, Bragantino 10th with 41 points
Risks
- Shots: Bragantino averaged 21.4 shots per match in recent games
All probabilities
Result
Palmeiras54%
Draw26%
Bragantino20%
Double chance
Palmeiras or draw80%
Bragantino or draw46%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.78 : 1.00, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Bragantino: dropped a lead in 5 of 7 games (11 points lost)
- Palmeiras: 5 of 8 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Palmeiras: first goal in 7 of 9 games (78%)
Lineups
Palmeiras 3-4-2-1 · Bragantino 4-2-3-1
Palmeiras
- 1 C. dos Santos Pereira
- 3 B. de Lara Fuchs
- 15 G. Gómez Portillo
- 2 A. Barboza Ullúa
- 4 A. Giay
- 17 M. Rodrigues Freitas
- 30 L. Evangelista Santana de Oliveira
- 56 A. Santana Marcolino
- 11 J. Arias Andrade
- 18 M. Magalhães Prado
- 19 R. Sosa
Bragantino
- 18 T. Volpi
- 52 R. da Silva
- 4 A. de Souza Sampaio
- 2 G. Rodríguez Ferrari
- 29 L. da Rocha Junior
- 35 M. Fernandes Siqueira
- 5 F. Silva de Freitas
- 32 J. Herrera
- 21 L. Barbosa
- 11 F. Dos Santos Pedro
- 9 I. Pitta Saldívar
Substitutes
- 42 J. López
- 32 E. Martínez Toranza
- 50 L. Pacheco da Costa
- 48 L. Torna Ferreira dos Santos
- 45 E. Machado Belé
- 14 M. do Nascimento
- 12 K. Silva Oliveira
- 43 L. Roncholeta Benedetti
- 7 F. Anderson Pereira Gomes
- 26 M. Cerqueira Paim
- 21 B. Oliveira Bertinato
- 37 F. Rodrigues Pereira
- 47 W. de Souza Barreto
- 56 G. Reis Alcantara
- 57 M. Braz da Silva
- 17 V. Mendonça Pereira
- 6 G. Girotto Franco
- 19 Bruno
- 8 E. Colcenti Antunes
- 23 A. Sant'Anna Quintero
- 15 I. Sosa Ospital
- 12 V. Barbosa da Silva
- 1 C. Schwengber
- 3 E. Mendes Santos
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