Match report →
Flamengo – Atlético Mineiro3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Flamengo
2.03
Total xG
3.01
Atlético Mineiro
0.98
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Flamengo | Atlético Mineiro |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.72 | |
| Attack strength (1.28x league average) | +0.38 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Jorge Carrascal on the bench (6 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Lucas Paquetá on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Tomás Cuello not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Vitor Hugo on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Flamengo averages 1.93 goals per game at home in the league this season, Atlético Mineiro concedes 1.2 away
- Table: Flamengo ranks 2nd in the league with 67 points, while Atlético Mineiro is 6th with 50 points
Risks
- Form: Atlético Mineiro is unbeaten in their last 5 games with 3 wins and 2 draws
All probabilities
Result
Flamengo60%
Draw23%
Atlético Mineiro16%
Double chance
Flamengo or draw84%
Atlético Mineiro or draw40%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.03 : 0.98, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
7%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Flamengo: first goal in 11 of 12 games (92%)
- Flamengo: 6 of 8 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Samuel Lino: 4 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Flamengo with Gonzalo Plata starting: 2.7 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (10/12 games, last 30)
- Atlético Mineiro: 32% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 19)
Lineups
Flamengo 4-2-3-1 · Atlético Mineiro 4-4-2
Flamengo
- 1 A. Rossi
- 2 G. Varela Olivera
- 3 L. Rech Ortiz
- 4 L. Pereira
- 26 A. Lobo Silva
- 5 E. Pulgar Farfán
- 21 J. Frello Filho
- 19 G. Plata Jiménez
- 10 G. De Arrascaeta Benedetti
- 16 S. Dias Lino
- 9 P. Abreu dos Santos
Atlético Mineiro
- 1 G. Delfim Ferreira
- 2 Natanael
- 40 V. Fernandes Chaves Teixeira
- 13 L. Silveira Neves Vojnović
- 6 R. Lodi dos Santos
- 23 A. Preciado Quiñónez
- 8 M. de Andrade Barberan
- 21 A. Franco Palma
- 11 B. Anício Caldeira Duarte
- 30 V. Gomes Silva
- 17 I. Silveira Gomes
Substitutes
- 11 L. Tolentino Coelho de Lima
- 42 A. da Silva Ventura
- 15 J. Carrascal Guardo
- 18 D. De La Cruz Arcosa
- 30 J. Freitas
- 61 J. de Souza Cunha
- 44 V. da Silva Matos
- 22 E. Leite de Souza Junior
- 7 L. de Araujo Guimarães Neto
- 27 B. Pinto
- 6 A. Dantas de Medeiros
- 49 F. Bento Alves
- 25 T. Pérez
- 3 L. Duarte da Silva
- 27 A. Minda García
- 15 K. Castaño Gil
- 14 V. Franchescoli de Souza
- 36 K. Resende
- 5 A. Gomes da Costa
- 39 M. Cissé
- 92 E. Pereira Rodrigues
- 19 R. Carvalho
- 10 G. Furtado Scarpa
- 31 R. Pinto Alves Assunção
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