Match report →
Santos – Bahia1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Santos
1.68
Total xG
2.83
Bahia
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Santos | Bahia |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | +0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Attack strength (1.45x league average) | +0.03 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.01 | |
| Christian Oliva on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Gonzalo Escobar not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jean Lucas not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists) |
Key factors
- Form: Santos with 3 wins from their last 5 matches, Bahia with 3 losses
- Attack: Santos scored 1.8 goals per match in their last 5 matches, Bahia 0.8 per match
Risks
- Table: Bahia is 7th in the league this season with 49 points, Santos is 8th with 45 points in 31 matches
- Head-to-head: Bahia won 1 of the 3 matches against Santos, with 2 draws
- Personnel: Santos without L. Verissimo da Silva, who started in 5 of the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Santos48%
Draw27%
Bahia25%
Double chance
Santos or draw75%
Bahia or draw52%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.68 : 1.15, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Bahia: 44% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 16)
- Santos: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Bahia with Erick starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (14/8 games, last 30)
- Bahia: 69% of all goals in the first half (11 of 16, last 12 games)
- Santos: 38% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 21)
- Santos: 3 cards per game (36 yellows, 0 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Santos 4-2-3-1 · Bahia 4-3-3
Santos
- 1 D. da Silva
- 23 R. de Almeida
- 42 J. Santos Paes da Costa
- 14 L. Peres Petroni
- 22 Á. Barreal
- 48 G. Henrique Pereira
- 8 G. Silva Bontempo
- 7 E. Sousa Soares
- 11 P. Coutinho Correia
- 10 Neymar
- 9 G. Barbosa Almeida
Bahia
- 1 R. de Oliveira Strada
- 44 M. Ferreira da Silva
- 33 D. de Duarte Macedo
- 4 V. Soares dos Santos
- 46 Luciano
- 14 E. Conrado Carvalho
- 5 N. Acevedo Tabárez
- 11 R. Bertalia
- 99 C. Olivera Ibarra
- 9 A. Véliz
- 16 E. da Costa Farias
Substitutes
- 17 G. Caballero
- 30 M. Terceros
- 34 J. Silva Martins
- 26 J. Ananias Bento
- 33 R. da Silva Barbosa
- 25 G. Menino
- 28 C. Oliva Giménez
- 18 I. de Souza
- 32 B. Rollheiser
- 5 J. Schmidt Urbano
- 45 V. Moreira de Lima
- 38 R. de Andrade Gonzaga
- 3 M. Ojeda
- 17 G. Herrera
- 77 R. Barbosa Sousa
- 23 M. Sanabria
- 27 E. Stum
- 7 A. da Silva Santos Junior
- 12 W. da Silva
- 66 J. de Lima Costa
- 15 M. Araújo Villar
- 10 É. de Barros Ribeiro
- 8 C. Souza e Silva
- 67 W. Silva Passos
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