Match report →
Chapecoense – Fluminense2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Chapecoense
1.17
Total xG
2.74
Fluminense
1.57
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Chapecoense | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.62 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 5, 15 places gap) | −0.21 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 20, 15 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Tulio Eduardo on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Luciano Acosta on the bench (5 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Agustín Canobbio on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Rodrigo Castillo on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Martinelli not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 84% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.5 vs 1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Fluminense are 5th in the league with 51 points, while Chapecoense are 20th with 18 points
- Home/Away: Chapecoense concede 2.36 goals per game at home in the league, Fluminense score 1.33 away per game
- Form: Chapecoense are winless in their last 5 matches with 4 losses, while Fluminense have 2 wins
Risks
- Squad: J. Kennedy Batista de Souza and J. Savarino Quintero are missing, scoring 15 of Fluminense's 49 league goals (31%)
- Form: Fluminense have lost 3 of their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Chapecoense27%
Draw28%
Fluminense45%
Double chance
Chapecoense or draw55%
Fluminense or draw73%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.17 : 1.57, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Chapecoense: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Chapecoense: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Fluminense: 75% of all goals in the second half (15 of 20, last 12 games)
- Fluminense: 40% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 20)
- Chapecoense: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
Lineups
Chapecoense 4-2-3-1 · Fluminense 4-2-3-1
Chapecoense
- 98 A. Silva Da Paixao
- 20 B. Nunes de Barros
- 3 E. Domachowski
- 4 J. Silveira dos Santos
- 91 B. de Jesus Pacheco
- 27 C. Reijers de Olivera
- 88 Y. da Costa Rocha
- 7 M. de Sousa Júnior
- 10 G. Oliveira Cardoso
- 31 M. Garcez
- 11 Y. Bolasie Yala
Fluminense
- 1 F. Lopes Maciel
- 23 C. Rodrigues Gomes
- 4 I. da Silva Oliveira
- 21 I. Rabello da Costa
- 13 G. Arana Lopes
- 16 G. Santana
- 35 H. Pereira do Nascimento
- 34 W. de Freitas Prado
- 10 P. Chagas de Lima
- 90 K. Serna Jaramillo
- 7 G. Vieira de Souza
Substitutes
- 80 M. Carvallho Vianna
- 23 L. Marques dos Santos
- 15 R. de Albuquerque Marques
- 19 D. Antunes da Silva
- 16 B. dos Santos
- 94 K. Ramírez Dutra
- 30 M. Aurelio Palhares Guimaraes
- 29 F. Rossi Donazar
- 22 M. Alves da Silva
- 12 Fernando
- 9 T. Silva de Oliveira
- 39 R. Azevedo Tiago
- 3 T. da Silva
- 17 A. Canobbio Graviz
- 19 R. Castillo
- 2 S. Brito
- 32 L. Acosta
- 28 R. Silva de Almeida
- 22 J. Freytes
- 94 O. Passos Santos
- 98 V. de Souza Costa
- 14 G. Cano
- 6 R. Rodrigues Martins
- 41 R. Sales
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