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Vitória – Athletico PR1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Vitória
1.18
Total xG
2.58
Athletico PR
1.41
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vitória | Athletico PR |
|---|---|---|
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.19 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.19 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 4, 9 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 13, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Renê not in squad (10 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 24% of goal output missing (only 89% available) | ||
| G. Benavídez not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| K. Calderón Vargas not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Athletico PR is 4th in the league this season with 53 points, Vitória is 13th with 37 points
- Attack: Athletico PR averages 1.58 goals per game in the league this season, Vitória averages 1.10 goals per game
- Shots: Athletico PR had 7 shots on target per game in the last 5 matches, Vitória had 5.8 shots on target per game
Risks
- Defense: Vitória concedes 0.8 goals per game at home in the league this season, Athletico PR concedes 1.47 goals per game away
All probabilities
Result
Vitória30%
Draw30%
Athletico PR41%
Double chance
Vitória or draw59%
Athletico PR or draw70%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.18 : 1.41, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
0:2
7%
2:1
7%
2:0
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Athletico PR: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Athletico PR: 7 of 18 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Athletico PR with Luiz Gustavo starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (24/5 games, last 30)
- Athletico PR: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Vitória 4-2-3-1 · Athletico PR 3-4-2-1
Vitória
- 1 L. Assis Arcanjo
- 98 M. Silva Duarte
- 2 E. Brítez
- 36 L. Candido de Almeida
- 83 J. Santos de Jesus
- 6 L. Martínez
- 95 C. de Jesus Gonçalves
- 33 E. de Arruda Serafim
- 10 M. Martins Fogaça de Paula
- 12 D. Tarzia
- 79 R. de Souza
Athletico PR
- 1 M. Pontes Moreira
- 55 B. Gonçalves Baldini
- 33 J. Aguirre Tabares
- 37 L. Esquivel
- 12 G. Moraes Junior
- 16 J. Alves dos Santos
- 14 L. Dias
- 7 J. Mendoza Valencia
- 21 L. Caetano Silva
- 8 J. Machado Cruz
- 9 K. Viveros Rodallega
Substitutes
- 77 I. Laquintana Marsico
- 11 O. Lourenço Filho
- 23 F. do Rosário dos Santos
- 20 L. Rodrigues da Silva
- 25 C. de Menezes Júnior
- 88 J. Silva Neves
- 7 M. Santos Costa
- 71 Y. Sena dos Reis Batista
- 15 W. Souza Silva
- 26 E. Santos Nascimento Filho
- 8 T. Pochettino
- 9 Alex Bruno
- 3 D. Silva Dutra
- 27 J. Portilla Orozco
- 6 L. Dias Gonçalves
- 10 B. Zapelli
- 53 E. Kogitzki Anastacio
- 70 R. Peixoto Nepomuceno
- 23 A. Melo dos Santos Neto
- 5 A. Costa
- 3 L. Pinheiro da Conceição
- 2 G. Leite dos Santos
- 47 F. Chiqueti Bandeira
- 19 J. Rivaldo Pinto
- 15 K. Stabelini
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