Match report →
Internacional – Botafogo3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Internacional
1.38
Total xG
2.69
Botafogo
1.30
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Internacional | Botafogo |
|---|---|---|
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 11, 6 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 17, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Vitinho not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 23% of goal output missing (only 82% available) | ||
| Arthur Cabral on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 94% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Both teams recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 5 league matches
- Home/Away: Internacional average 1.2 goals per game at home, Botafogo score 1.2 goals per game away
Risks
- Table: Botafogo are 11th with 39 points after 31 league games, while Internacional are 17th with 32 points
- Head-to-head: Botafogo have won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Internacional, with 1 draw and 1 loss
All probabilities
Result
Internacional37%
Draw29%
Botafogo34%
Double chance
Internacional or draw66%
Botafogo or draw63%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.38 : 1.30, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Internacional: 3.5 cards per game (36 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)
- Internacional: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (9 points lost)
Lineups
Internacional 4-2-3-1 · Botafogo 4-2-3-1
Internacional
- 22 K. Jesus Santos Oliveira
- 15 B. Gomes da Silva Clevelário
- 3 G. Maripán Loaysa
- 18 J. Ferreira Junior
- 6 Matheus Bahia
- 16 R. da Silva Souza
- 29 T. Maia Alencar
- 35 B. Aguirre
- 10 A. Lourenço
- 26 Alexandro Bernabei
- 9 A. Barra Mansa Realino de Souza
Botafogo
- 12 G. Batista de Souza
- 2 V. da Silva
- 5 N. Ferraresi Hernández
- 21 F. Marçal de Oliveira
- 13 A. Telles
- 25 A. Marques Loureiro
- 8 D. dos Santos de Oliveira
- 6 C. Medina
- 10 ?. Montoro
- 11 M. Martins Silva dos Santos
- 9 F. das Chagas Soares dos Santos
Substitutes
- 30 C. Goncalves Ferreira da Silva
- 17 N. Eliasson
- 43 H. Menke Lopes
- 7 J. Carbonero Balanta
- 41 V. da Conceição Ribeiro
- 27 P. Lucas de Paula
- 31 A. Rodrigues Pereira da Silva
- 8 B. Corsini
- 44 J. Alves de Morais Francisco
- 49 João Bezerra
- 53 L. de Morais Francisco
- 24 F. Sirio
- 90 D. Pereira da Silva
- 29 P. da Silva
- 19 A. Mendonça Cabral
- 88 E. Andrade dos Santos
- 7 J. dos Santos Junior
- 4 M. Ponte Costa
- 59 K. Almeida Toledo
- 34 E. Justino
- 75 V. de Melo Moura
- 17 W. Stellion Lisboa Oliveira
- 22 H. Ziyech
- 91 D. Andrade
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