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Vasco da Gama – Corinthians3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Vasco da Gama
1.73
Total xG
2.66
Corinthians
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vasco da Gama | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −0.64 | |
| Attack strength (1.71x league average) | +0.59 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.30 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.29 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.02 | |
| Paulo Henrique on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Raniele not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.2 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Vasco da Gama won 3 of their last 5 matches, Corinthians remained winless in their last 5 matches
- Home/Away: Vasco da Gama scored 1.4 goals per home match in the league, Corinthians conceded 1.47 per away match
- Shots on target: Vasco da Gama averaged 6.2 shots on target per match in the last 5 games, Corinthians 4.8
Risks
- Head-to-head: Corinthians won 4 of the 5 meetings against Vasco da Gama, Vasco da Gama 1
- Table: Corinthians have 33 points from 31 matches, close behind Vasco da Gama with 35 points from 30 matches
All probabilities
Result
Vasco da Gama55%
Draw27%
Corinthians19%
Double chance
Vasco da Gama or draw81%
Corinthians or draw45%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.73 : 0.93, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Corinthians: scored only in H2 in 5 consecutive games (8 of 12 total)
- Corinthians: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Vasco da Gama: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Corinthians: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 11 total)
Lineups
Vasco da Gama 4-2-3-1 · Corinthians 4-2-3-1
Vasco da Gama
- 1 L. Jardim
- 2 J. Rodríguez Bebanz
- 4 A. Saldivia Vázquez
- 30 R. Alves Barbosa
- 66 L. Soares da Silva
- 22 A. Lescano
- 5 S. Sosa
- 11 A. Gomez
- 23 T. Mendes Ribeiro
- 9 F. Colidio
- 19 B. Duarte da Silva
Corinthians
- 1 H. de Souza Nogueira
- 2 M. França Silva
- 5 A. Ramalho Silva
- 13 G. Vernes
- 26 F. Angileri
- 49 A. Santos Dias
- 7 B. de Souza Bidon
- 61 D. da Cruz Lopes
- 8 R. Garro
- 21 M. Lima Beltrão Oliveira
- 9 Y. Monteiro da Silva
Substitutes
- 55 G. Pereira Magalhães dos Santos
- 20 B. Souza da Silva
- 18 M. Hinestroza Angulo
- 96 P. de Oliveira Alves
- 43 L. de Freitas Molarinho Chagas
- 7 D. Correia da Fonseca
- 17 N. Rocha Moreira
- 3 D. das Neves Pinheiro
- 8 J. Rodrigues Júnior
- 6 L. Piton Crivellaro
- 13 D. Cerantola Fuzato
- 83 R. de Souza Barros
- 37 K. Andrade Lima
- 77 J. Lingard
- 51 K. de Souza Camargo
- 20 P. Milans Carámbula
- 23 M. Pereira da Silva
- 29 A. Rodrigues de Souza
- 4 J. de Sousa Rodrigues
- 35 C. Rigon Matos
- 56 G. Silva Inácio
- 18 P. Garay da Silva
- 46 H. Ferreira de Farias
- 55 I. Machado
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