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Bahia – São Paulo3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Bahia
1.49
Total xG
2.69
São Paulo
1.20
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bahia | São Paulo |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.27 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.27 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Artur not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Marcos Antônio not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Iago not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Bahia score 1.44 goals per game at home in the league this season, São Paulo 0.75 per game away
- Table: Bahia are 7th with 50 points from 32 games, São Paulo are 9th with 43 points from 32 games
Risks
- Form: Bahia recorded 1 win and 3 losses in their last 5 games, São Paulo had 2 wins and 2 losses
- Head-to-head: São Paulo won 3 of the 5 previous meetings, Bahia 1 with 1 draw
All probabilities
Result
Bahia42%
Draw29%
São Paulo29%
Double chance
Bahia or draw71%
São Paulo or draw58%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.49 : 1.20, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- São Paulo with Luciano starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (22/7 games, last 30)
- Bahia: 44% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 16)
- Bahia: 69% of all goals in the first half (11 of 16, last 12 games)
- São Paulo: 42% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 12)
- São Paulo: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Bahia 5-3-2 · São Paulo 3-4-2-1
Bahia
- 1 R. de Oliveira Strada
- 99 C. Olivera Ibarra
- 44 M. Ferreira da Silva
- 33 D. de Duarte Macedo
- 3 M. Ojeda
- 46 Luciano
- 6 J. de Souza Oliveira
- 5 N. Acevedo Tabárez
- 11 R. Bertalia
- 9 A. Véliz
- 16 E. da Costa Farias
São Paulo
- 23 R. Monteiro
- 28 N. Araújo da Costa Júnior
- 5 R. Arboleda Escobar
- 35 J. Chagas Monteiro
- 32 P. Cardoso de Lima
- 16 D. Bobadilla
- 29 P. Gonçalves Maia Fortunato
- 18 W. Nascimento Borges
- 10 L. da Rocha Neves
- 7 L. Rodrigues Moura da Silva
- 9 J. Calleri
Substitutes
- 17 G. Herrera
- 31 R. Gómez
- 77 R. Barbosa Sousa
- 23 M. Sanabria
- 43 L. Marinho Ribeiro dos Santos
- 27 E. Stum
- 7 A. da Silva Santos Junior
- 14 E. Conrado Carvalho
- 66 J. de Lima Costa
- 15 M. Araújo Villar
- 10 É. de Barros Ribeiro
- 8 C. Souza e Silva
- 31 C. Coronel
- 2 R. Tolói
- 19 L. Batista Silva
- 49 R. Rodrigues dos Santos Silva
- 17 A. Oliveira Silva
- 80 C. Oliveira Souza
- 48 D. Ferreira
- 46 P. da Silva Ferreira
- 94 D. de Oliveira Sertanejo
- 54 L. Osorio Messias de Oliveira
- 43 G. Domingos Santana
- 27 J. Santos Sa
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