Match report →
Bragantino – Chapecoense3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Bragantino
1.89
Total xG
2.86
Chapecoense
0.97
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bragantino | Chapecoense |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.97 | |
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | +0.85 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 10, 10 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 20, 10 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Tiago Volpi not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 91% available) | ||
| Tulio Eduardo on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Maurício Garcez on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 93% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Bragantino score 1.6 goals per game at home in the league, Chapecoense concede 1.81 per game away
- Table: Bragantino are 10th in the league with 41 points, Chapecoense are 20th with 21 points
- Tactics: Bragantino averaged 6.8 shots on target per game over their last 5 matches, Chapecoense averaged 3 per game
Risks
- Form: Bragantino have recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses from their last 5 matches
- Squad: T. Volpi and other absent players scored 8 of the 34 league goals for Bragantino players this season (24%)
All probabilities
Result
Bragantino58%
Draw25%
Chapecoense18%
Double chance
Bragantino or draw83%
Chapecoense or draw42%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.89 : 0.97, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Bragantino: dropped a lead in 5 of 7 games (11 points lost)
- Chapecoense: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Chapecoense: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Bragantino 4-2-3-1 · Chapecoense 4-4-2
Bragantino
- 1 C. Schwengber
- 52 R. da Silva
- 4 A. de Souza Sampaio
- 2 G. Rodríguez Ferrari
- 29 L. da Rocha Junior
- 5 F. Silva de Freitas
- 7 E. Dos Santos Rodrigues
- 21 L. Barbosa
- 47 W. de Souza Barreto
- 11 F. Dos Santos Pedro
- 8 E. Colcenti Antunes
Chapecoense
- 98 A. Silva Da Paixao
- 20 B. Nunes de Barros
- 21 K. Faria Gomes
- 4 J. Silveira dos Santos
- 91 B. de Jesus Pacheco
- 7 M. de Sousa Júnior
- 16 B. dos Santos
- 19 D. Antunes da Silva
- 12 Fernando
- 10 G. Oliveira Cardoso
- 11 Y. Bolasie Yala
Substitutes
- 9 I. Pitta Saldívar
- 32 J. Herrera
- 56 G. Reis Alcantara
- 57 M. Braz da Silva
- 30 H. Mosquera Sánchez
- 17 V. Mendonça Pereira
- 19 Bruno
- 35 M. Fernandes Siqueira
- 23 A. Sant'Anna Quintero
- 12 V. Barbosa da Silva
- 3 E. Mendes Santos
- 22 G. Ribeiro Neves
- 80 M. Carvallho Vianna
- 23 L. Marques dos Santos
- 31 M. Garcez
- 3 E. Domachowski
- 94 K. Ramírez Dutra
- 30 M. Aurelio Palhares Guimaraes
- 29 F. Rossi Donazar
- 25 V. Carvalho Caetano
- 22 M. Alves da Silva
- 9 T. Silva de Oliveira
- 55 R. Macedo Soares
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