Match report →
Corinthians – Mirassol2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Corinthians
1.34
Total xG
2.55
Mirassol
1.20
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Corinthians | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.28 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.00 | |
| Raniele not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Denilson on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Away: Mirassol scores 0.87 goals per game and concedes 1.53 away in the league this season
- Shots: Corinthians averaged 5.4 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, Mirassol 4.4 per game
Risks
- Form: Mirassol has 2 wins from the last 5 games, Corinthians 0 wins and 4 losses
- Squad: Corinthians without R. Almeida Melo, starting in 3 of the last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Corinthians38%
Draw30%
Mirassol32%
Double chance
Corinthians or draw68%
Mirassol or draw62%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.34 : 1.20, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Corinthians: scored only in H2 in 6 consecutive games (9 of 12 total)
- Corinthians: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Corinthians with Kaio César starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (11/11 games, last 30)
- Mirassol: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
- Corinthians: 42% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (5 of 12)
Lineups
Corinthians 4-2-3-1 · Mirassol 4-2-3-1
Corinthians
- 1 H. de Souza Nogueira
- 2 M. França Silva
- 5 A. Ramalho Silva
- 13 G. Vernes
- 26 F. Angileri
- 49 A. Santos Dias
- 7 B. de Souza Bidon
- 37 K. Andrade Lima
- 8 R. Garro
- 21 M. Lima Beltrão Oliveira
- 9 Y. Monteiro da Silva
Mirassol
- 22 W. Capeloza Artune
- 32 I. Marques Paciencia Cardoso
- 34 J. Carroll Santana
- 3 W. Estefani Machado
- 6 R. da Silva
- 80 W. Alves Maximo
- 25 A. Moura Neto
- 95 E. Mendes dos Santos
- 33 C. de Oliveira Alves
- 77 A. dos Santos Batista
- 30 B. Santos de Oliveira
Substitutes
- 19 A. Carrillo Díaz
- 51 K. de Souza Camargo
- 20 P. Milans Carámbula
- 23 M. Pereira da Silva
- 29 A. Rodrigues de Souza
- 4 J. de Sousa Rodrigues
- 35 C. Rigon Matos
- 11 V. Coelho Santos
- 61 D. da Cruz Lopes
- 56 G. Silva Inácio
- 18 P. Garay da Silva
- 55 I. Machado
- 7 S. Cardozo
- 21 J. Soares de Oliveira Filho
- 20 D. Fortunato Borges
- 96 C. Ferreira de Souza
- 90 C. Lecciolle Thomazella
- 9 A. Silva de Aguiar
- 2 L. da Cruz Oliveira
- 27 Denilson
- 10 F. Hyun Sol Kim
- 17 F. Marques Maciel
- 44 G. Knesowitsch
- 99 J. Assunção de Araujo Filho
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