Match report →
Coritiba – Vitória2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Coritiba
1.18
Total xG
2.30
Vitória
1.12
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Coritiba | Vitória |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.59x league average) | −0.40 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.31 | |
| Declining form (0.2 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.31 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.08 | |
| Joaquín Lavega on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Paulo Roberto on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Matheuzinho on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Mateusinho not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Luan Cândido not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Coritiba is 12th with 39 points from 32 matches, while Vitoria sits 14th with 38 points from 32 matches
- xG: Coritiba averages 1.07 xG per match in the league this season, while Vitoria averages 1.03 xG per match
Risks
- Form: Vitoria won 1 and drew 2 of their last 5 matches, while Coritiba lost 4 of their last 5 matches
- Shots on target: Vitoria averaged 5.4 shots on target per match over their last 5 matches, compared to Coritiba's 2.2
All probabilities
Result
Coritiba36%
Draw32%
Vitória33%
Double chance
Coritiba or draw67%
Vitória or draw64%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.18 : 1.12, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
12%
1:0
10%
0:1
10%
2:1
8%
2:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Coritiba: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Coritiba: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Coritiba 4-2-3-1 · Vitória 4-1-4-1
Coritiba
- 1 P. Luccas Morisco da Silva
- 2 G. de Jesus da Silva
- 23 T. Coiser
- 55 J. Maranhão Oliveira
- 26 B. Ferreira Melo
- 21 T. dos Santos
- 19 S. Gómez Londoño
- 77 B. Vasconcelos Lopes
- 5 N. Fonseca
- 32 P. Rocha Neves
- 10 J. Soares Pesqueira
Vitória
- 1 L. Assis Arcanjo
- 59 G. de Jesus Soares
- 26 E. Santos Nascimento Filho
- 25 C. de Menezes Júnior
- 2 E. Brítez
- 95 C. de Jesus Gonçalves
- 33 E. de Arruda Serafim
- 88 J. Silva Neves
- 6 L. Martínez
- 12 D. Tarzia
- 91 C. de Sousa Ferreira
Substitutes
- 17 B. Ocampo Ferreira
- 14 F. Bustos
- 25 R. Cândido Coelho
- 36 V. dos Santos
- 7 J. Lavega Colzada
- 3 M. Pereira Roque
- 22 P. De Faria Rangel
- 4 R. da Silva Moledo
- 99 R. Rodrigues Silva
- 50 V. Gonçalves Tissi
- 18 P. da Silva Souza
- 66 R. Silva Nascimento
- 77 I. Laquintana Marsico
- 79 R. de Souza
- 23 F. do Rosário dos Santos
- 20 L. Rodrigues da Silva
- 44 G. Baralhas dos Santos
- 16 R. Valente Ramos
- 71 Y. Sena dos Reis Batista
- 10 M. Martins Fogaça de Paula
- 8 T. Pochettino
- 9 Alex Bruno
- 69 W. Oliveira
- 3 D. Silva Dutra
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →