Match report →
Grêmio – Athletico PR2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Grêmio
1.32
Total xG
2.55
Athletico PR
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Grêmio | Athletico PR |
|---|---|---|
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 4, 13 places gap) | −0.20 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 17, 13 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Cristian Pavón not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Gilberto not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Jádson not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Grêmio score 1.56 goals per game at home in the league, Athletico PR score 1.44 goals per game away in the league
- Head to head: Grêmio have 2 wins and 1 draw against Athletico PR in 3 meetings
Risks
- Table: Athletico PR are 4th with 54 points from 32 games, Grêmio are 17th with 34 points from 32 games
- Attack: Athletico PR scored 1.8 goals per game in the last 5 games, Grêmio 1.0 goals per game in the last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Grêmio37%
Draw30%
Athletico PR33%
Double chance
Grêmio or draw67%
Athletico PR or draw63%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.32 : 1.23, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Athletico PR: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Grêmio: 3.1 cards per game (36 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- Athletico PR: 7 of 19 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Athletico PR: 64% of all goals in the first half (14 of 22, last 12 games)
- Athletico PR with Luiz Gustavo starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (25/5 games, last 30)
Lineups
Grêmio 3-4-3 · Athletico PR 3-4-2-1
Grêmio
- 1 W. Pereira da Silva
- 6 G. Martins de Souza Santos
- 2 F. Balbuena González
- 82 W. Gomes da Silva Santos
- 18 J. Maturano dos Santos
- 8 E. Noriega
- 20 M. Villasanti Rolón
- 23 M. Rodrigues Xavier
- 99 J. Enamorado Gómez
- 95 C. Alves Morais
- 9 F. Amuzu
Athletico PR
- 1 M. Pontes Moreira
- 4 A. dos Santos Barbosa Dias
- 33 J. Aguirre Tabares
- 37 L. Esquivel
- 7 J. Mendoza Valencia
- 27 J. Portilla Orozco
- 14 L. Dias
- 6 L. Dias Gonçalves
- 21 L. Caetano Silva
- 8 J. Machado Cruz
- 9 K. Viveros Rodallega
Substitutes
- 11 Tetê
- 10 F. Krovinović
- 30 M. Nascimento de Paula
- 22 M. Braithwait
- 12 G. Hamester Grando
- 3 W. Calvelo de Souza
- 38 C. de Oliveira
- 14 M. Rocha Aquino
- 17 D. Moreira Fagundes
- 54 P. Crisostomo Pinheiro
- 50 B. Schons Zortea
- 18 K. Calderón Vargas
- 29 G. Benavídez
- 10 B. Zapelli
- 53 E. Kogitzki Anastacio
- 70 R. Peixoto Nepomuceno
- 23 A. Melo dos Santos Neto
- 5 A. Costa
- 2 G. Leite dos Santos
- 47 F. Chiqueti Bandeira
- 19 J. Rivaldo Pinto
- 25 J. Silva Dantas de Oliveira
- 55 B. Gonçalves Baldini
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →