Match report →
Remo – Botafogo2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Remo
1.18
Total xG
2.44
Botafogo
1.26
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Remo | Botafogo |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.26 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.14 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 11, 8 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 19, 8 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Zé Ricardo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Danilo not in squad (10 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Álvaro Montoro not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 73% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Attack: Remo and Botafogo each scored 3 goals in their last 5 matches (0.6 per match)
- Possession: Remo averaged 50.2% possession in their last 5 matches, Botafogo 51.8%
Risks
- Table: Botafogo is 11th in the league with 39 points from 32 matches, Remo is 19th with 26 points from 32 matches
All probabilities
Result
Remo33%
Draw31%
Botafogo37%
Double chance
Remo or draw63%
Botafogo or draw67%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.18 : 1.26, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
10%
0:1
9%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Remo: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Botafogo: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Remo: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- Remo: 4 of 11 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Remo: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 11 total)
Lineups
Remo 4-3-3 · Botafogo 4-2-3-1
Remo
- 88 M. Rangel Rosa
- 79 M. Rodrigues Souza
- 13 M. Gonçalves Jerônimo Borges
- 18 D. Tchamba Bangou
- 6 M. Lopes do Nascimento
- 14 L. Picco
- 28 J. da Silva
- 8 P. Bezerra do Nascimento
- 26 D. Trindade Braga
- 19 G. Pereira Taliari
- 7 J. Souza Silva
Botafogo
- 12 G. Batista de Souza
- 2 V. da Silva
- 5 N. Ferraresi Hernández
- 21 F. Marçal de Oliveira
- 13 A. Telles
- 91 D. Andrade
- 75 V. de Melo Moura
- 22 H. Ziyech
- 6 C. Medina
- 11 M. Martins Silva dos Santos
- 19 A. Mendonça Cabral
Substitutes
- 21 A. Galeano Ferreira
- 2 M. Anastácio de Souza
- 22 G. Souza Lisboa
- 5 L. de Andrade Silva
- 55 J. Araújo Fernandes
- 97 I. Quaresma da Silva
- 15 V. Frezarin Bueno
- 39 Eduardo Queiroz
- 94 Y. Vinhas Oliveira Lima
- 77 M. da Silva Ferreira
- 61 P. da Costa Evangelista Junior
- 35 E. da Silva Gomes
- 90 D. Pereira da Silva
- 29 P. da Silva
- 9 F. das Chagas Soares dos Santos
- 88 E. Andrade dos Santos
- 7 J. dos Santos Junior
- 25 A. Marques Loureiro
- 4 M. Ponte Costa
- 77 L. Villalba Jaume
- 59 K. Almeida Toledo
- 34 E. Justino
- 17 W. Stellion Lisboa Oliveira
- 33 L. Monzón
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