Match report →
Atlético Mineiro – Cruzeiro0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Atlético Mineiro
1.43
Total xG
2.71
Cruzeiro
1.27
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético Mineiro | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.35 | |
| Attack strength (1.35x league average) | +0.32 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Bernard on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Maycon on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Vitor Hugo not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Atlético Mineiro scores 1.69 goals per game at home in the league this season, Cruzeiro concedes 1.88 per game away
- Head-to-head: Atlético Mineiro with 2 wins and 3 draws in the last 5 meetings against Cruzeiro
Risks
- Table: Cruzeiro ranks 3rd in the league with 54 points, Atlético Mineiro is 7th with 50 points
- Form: Cruzeiro recorded 4 wins from their last 5 games, Atlético Mineiro won 3
All probabilities
Result
Atlético Mineiro39%
Draw29%
Cruzeiro32%
Double chance
Atlético Mineiro or draw68%
Cruzeiro or draw61%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.43 : 1.27, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cruzeiro: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (9 of 25 total)
- Cruzeiro: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Cruzeiro: 72% of all goals in the second half (18 of 25, last 12 games)
- Atlético Mineiro: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Atlético Mineiro: 32% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 19)
- Cruzeiro with Kaio Jorge starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (21/7 games, last 30)
Lineups
Atlético Mineiro 4-2-3-1 · Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
Atlético Mineiro
- 1 G. Delfim Ferreira
- 2 Natanael
- 40 V. Fernandes Chaves Teixeira
- 13 L. Silveira Neves Vojnović
- 6 R. Lodi dos Santos
- 21 A. Franco Palma
- 15 K. Castaño Gil
- 10 G. Furtado Scarpa
- 30 V. Gomes Silva
- 17 I. Silveira Gomes
- 19 R. Carvalho
Cruzeiro
- 81 O. Rezende Costa
- 12 W. de Asevedo Furtado
- 34 J. de Jesus Alves
- 43 J. Messias Ferreira
- 25 L. Villalba
- 29 L. Romero
- 5 J. Gomes da Silva
- 99 K. Arroyo Alvarado
- 10 M. Costa Pereira
- 8 G. Santos da Silva
- 19 K. Pinto Ramos
Substitutes
- 25 T. Pérez
- 8 M. de Andrade Barberan
- 3 L. Duarte da Silva
- 23 A. Preciado Quiñónez
- 27 A. Minda García
- 29 C. Soares
- 36 K. Resende
- 5 A. Gomes da Costa
- 39 M. Cissé
- 92 E. Pereira Rodrigues
- 11 B. Anício Caldeira Duarte
- 31 R. Pinto Alves Assunção
- 20 W. Gassova Ribeiro Teixeira
- 97 L. Rodríguez Rosales
- 6 M. Viña Susperreguy
- 15 F. Soares de Faria
- 27 G. Rojas
- 9 B. Rodrigues do Nascimento
- 7 M. de Souza
- 22 N. Villareal
- 11 M. Oliveira Alencar
- 23 F. Conserva Lemos
- 16 L. Silva Borges
- 1 C. Ramos
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