Match report →
Santos – Palmeiras0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Santos
1.11
Total xG
2.63
Palmeiras
1.52
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Santos | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.34 | |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | −0.16 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 2, 6 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 8, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.01 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Gonzalo Escobar not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Vitor Roque on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Palmeiras sits 2nd in the league with 69 points, while Santos is 8th with 46 points
- Defense: Palmeiras conceded 0.2 goals per game in their last 5 matches, while Santos allowed 1.4 goals per game
- Shots: Palmeiras recorded 7.8 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, compared to Santos with 5.4 per game
Risks
- Attack: Santos scored 1.6 goals per game in their last 5 matches
- Head-to-head: Across the last 3 meetings, both teams took 1 win each alongside 1 draw
All probabilities
Result
Santos26%
Draw29%
Palmeiras45%
Double chance
Santos or draw55%
Palmeiras or draw74%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.11 : 1.52, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Palmeiras: first goal in 8 of 9 games (89%)
- Santos: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)
- Santos: 40% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 20)
- Santos: 3 cards per game (35 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- Palmeiras: 2.8 cards per game (30 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
- Santos: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Santos 4-2-3-1 · Palmeiras 3-4-2-1
Santos
- 1 D. da Silva
- 23 R. de Almeida
- 42 J. Santos Paes da Costa
- 14 L. Peres Petroni
- 22 Á. Barreal
- 48 G. Henrique Pereira
- 28 C. Oliva Giménez
- 8 G. Silva Bontempo
- 11 P. Coutinho Correia
- 7 E. Sousa Soares
- 9 G. Barbosa Almeida
Palmeiras
- 1 C. dos Santos Pereira
- 26 M. Cerqueira Paim
- 15 G. Gómez Portillo
- 2 A. Barboza Ullúa
- 4 A. Giay
- 17 M. Rodrigues Freitas
- 30 L. Evangelista Santana de Oliveira
- 22 J. Piquerez Moreira
- 11 J. Arias Andrade
- 8 A. Hoelgebaum Pereira
- 42 J. López
Substitutes
- 17 G. Caballero
- 30 M. Terceros
- 34 J. Silva Martins
- 26 J. Ananias Bento
- 33 R. da Silva Barbosa
- 25 G. Menino
- 18 I. de Souza
- 32 B. Rollheiser
- 5 J. Schmidt Urbano
- 45 V. Moreira de Lima
- 38 R. de Andrade Gonzaga
- 32 E. Martínez Toranza
- 9 V. Roque Ferreira
- 50 L. Pacheco da Costa
- 56 A. Santana Marcolino
- 48 L. Torna Ferreira dos Santos
- 45 E. Machado Belé
- 3 B. de Lara Fuchs
- 14 M. do Nascimento
- 12 K. Silva Oliveira
- 43 L. Roncholeta Benedetti
- 7 F. Anderson Pereira Gomes
- 18 M. Magalhães Prado
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