Match report →
Fluminense – Internacional2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Fluminense
1.73
Total xG
2.71
Internacional
0.98
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Fluminense | Internacional |
|---|---|---|
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 5, 11 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 16, 11 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Luciano Acosta on the bench (5 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Kevin Serna on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Martinelli not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Guilherme Arana on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Vitinho on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 90% available) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Fluminense scores 1.81 goals per match at home in the league this season, Internacional concedes 1.44 per match away
- Table: Fluminense is 5th in the league this season with 51 points, Internacional is 16th with 35 points
Risks
- Form: Fluminense lost 3 of their last 5 matches, while Internacional won 2 of their last 5 matches
- Squad: Fluminense without M. Martinelli, in the starting XI in 3 of the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Fluminense53%
Draw27%
Internacional20%
Double chance
Fluminense or draw80%
Internacional or draw47%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.73 : 0.98, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Internacional: 3.2 cards per game (37 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Internacional: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Fluminense: 40% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 20)
- Internacional: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (9 points lost)
- Fluminense: 70% of all goals in the second half (14 of 20, last 12 games)
Lineups
Fluminense 4-2-3-1 · Internacional 3-4-2-1
Fluminense
- 1 F. Lopes Maciel
- 23 C. Rodrigues Gomes
- 4 I. da Silva Oliveira
- 3 T. da Silva
- 6 R. Rodrigues Martins
- 35 H. Pereira do Nascimento
- 16 G. Santana
- 11 J. Savarino Quintero
- 10 P. Chagas de Lima
- 17 A. Canobbio Graviz
- 7 G. Vieira de Souza
Internacional
- 22 K. Jesus Santos Oliveira
- 15 B. Gomes da Silva Clevelário
- 3 G. Maripán Loaysa
- 18 J. Ferreira Junior
- 35 B. Aguirre
- 16 R. da Silva Souza
- 29 T. Maia Alencar
- 6 Matheus Bahia
- 10 A. Lourenço
- 26 Alexandro Bernabei
- 9 A. Barra Mansa Realino de Souza
Substitutes
- 90 K. Serna Jaramillo
- 30 Y. Soteldo Martínez
- 13 G. Arana Lopes
- 19 R. Castillo
- 2 S. Brito
- 32 L. Acosta
- 22 J. Freytes
- 94 O. Passos Santos
- 98 V. de Souza Costa
- 14 G. Cano
- 21 I. Rabello da Costa
- 34 W. de Freitas Prado
- 30 C. Goncalves Ferreira da Silva
- 17 N. Eliasson
- 43 H. Menke Lopes
- 7 J. Carbonero Balanta
- 41 V. da Conceição Ribeiro
- 27 P. Lucas de Paula
- 5 R. Villagra
- 28 V. Naum dos Santos
- 8 B. Corsini
- 25 G. Mercado
- 44 J. Alves de Morais Francisco
- 49 João Bezerra
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